Welcome President Obama

President Obama. Gonna have to get used to writing that.

A bitter farewell to one of the most destructive presidents in American history, and a warm hello to the new commander-in-chief, Barack Obama. I watched much of the inauguration today; Obama's inaugural address (transcript here) was the first presidental speech I have ever witnessed that did not leave me feeling like my president was not only competent, but surrounded by radical ideologues. (Keep in mind I wasn't old enough to analyze Clinton's speeches during his time in office.)

That being said, it was a very fine speech, covering everything from climate change issues to the flawed economic system to keeping the nation safe to helping those in need abroad. For once in my politically-active life I feel confident in the executive office, and this brings me a feeling of great satisfaction. At last, a man who works for the people instead of representing the interests of those on top. After eight long years, at last a president who can do some good for this fine country.

When the clock struck 12 today, my heart leapt with excitement. Let us see if President Obama can or will bring us the new era he's promised. Even if things fall though, it would be very difficult for Obama to perform worse than his predecessor. I wish the new 'leader of the free world' good luck.

Ready for a new president?

Tomorrow Barack Obama will be sworn in as the 44th president of the United States. CBS News' political blog has all the day-before details...

Obama has been pushing for the release of the second half of the $700bn bailout, and this time he promises oversight — a new concept, it seems, for today's federal bureaucracy. Not even the feds know where the first (roughly) $350bn truly went. Another reassuring Obama move is the promise to close Guantanamo Bay as soon as possible.

Meanwhile, Bush is expected to pardon Republican cronies, corrupt businessmen, etc. (the usual Bush supporters) at the last minute. Politico lists 10 potential pardons here. Political pardons like these are yet another reason the American justice system lacks fairness, especially if a super-corrupt felon like Ted Stevens gets off... (Remember what happened with Scooter Libby?)

I'm looking very much forward to a new political era, though certainly not one without challenges like the current economic downturn and the state of the environment.

OBAMA WINS!

CNN projects Barack Obama has won the 2008 presidential election.

Now three words I am very proud to say: President-elect Obama. This is an America I can be proud of.

I am perfectly ecstatic.

Hope is alive, even in a political cynic like me.

Electoral excitement!

In just a few days (can't wait until Tuesday!), Barack Obama should win the race for the American presidency. National polls show him comfortably ahead his rival, who grows increasingly desperate — and right-wing. That's not to say this election is won, of course. Anything can happen. But if one just tinkers with the electoral map one finds a McCain victory at this point is incredibly unlikely. McCain asserts he can win, however, even if he carries Ohio (there's a chance) and Pennsylvania (Obama's looking fairly strong there), as well as most all of the toss-ups, including Florida, Obama still wins by over 30 electoral votes! Even if we then give McCain North Carolina Obama carries the election. To win, McCain would not only have to pick up every toss-up state, but grab some of those big states leaning towards Obama. It's possible, but certainly not as likely as the McCain campaign would like people to think

How a 'plumber' named 'Joe' shook up the election

His first name isn't actually Joe. He isn't a valid plumber. And he still has back-taxes to pay.

And yet, he has become the recent hero of the McCain campaign (frighteningly backwards economic plan and all) since his name came up in last weeks debate. Not only that, he has helped bolster his ratings in major swing states like Ohio. The media is all over him, even though he's effectively a non-story.
Joe the plumber: one of the most appalling political ploys of this election season (up there with the Obama-Ayers connection).

If there's one thing Americans can't stand, it's taxes. Americans have some of the lowest income taxes in the developed world, and yet, even when we've got a burgeoning deficit and a war to pay for, the thought of raising taxes if only for a few is painful, and, for some, unpatriotic. Because it's unpatriotic to give a slice of your — to be fair — well-earned income to your government.

Heaven forbid the developed country with the greatest income inequality — that's America, folks — tries to bridge the gap with a more fair, graduated tax system that doesn't benefit the wealthy, using the bogus 'trickle-down' claim as an excuse for unfair taxes.

So let's all feel sympathy for a man in the top 4% income bracket ($250,000 per year) who will feel a slight pinch in taxes, in fact, since were fighting one of the most expensive wars in modern history and facing a massive recession, lets give him a tax BREAK. That makes economic sense. Not like he hasn't already gotten a massive one under the Bush administration.

The news media deserves some blame too. Although there has been some skepticism, the outrageous amount of coverage is unwarranted and largely spreads the propaganda the McCain campaign itself is sending out into the mainstream.

Oh, and, for the record Obama was correct in his statement about small business taxes that started this mess. As 'Joe' plans to campaign across America with McCain, warning the masses about the 'socialist' radicalism a fairer tax system would bring more and more ACTUAL "average Joes" are feeling the pinch of the current economic crisis. If only people like Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher and Sarah Palin could be less greedy and actually give a damn about their own country's economic health instead of accusing their fellow Americans of being unpatriotic.

If American politics has been reduced to feeling sympathy for a man — an invention of the McCain campaign — who has already received more tax breaks than is healthy for this country's economy, then this really isn't the America I want to live in.

Going door-to-door for Obama

I canvassed for the first time today. Though it was just a few hours of my day, canvassing gave me a sense of fulfillment. When I got back home and looked at the polls, there was good news. Obama's pushing on as strong as ever now that the nation can fully see Palin for who she is. Hopefully Obama can maintain this lead when election day comes, and we can finally have a competent person in the Oval Office. And, for what it's worth, I plan on canvassing more next weekend and making calls during the week.

If you're looking to volunteer for the Obama/Biden campaign, get involved in more ways than one by checking out the campaign website.

Meanwhile, I must get back to these college applications.

The DNC

Obama just made an incredible speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. I'm glad he chose the experienced Joe Biden as his vice presidential candidate.

More posts soon, I promise. I have been very busy lately.

Obama picks biden as VP

Biden was my favorite candidates for the vice presidency, so I am pleased Obama chose him. He posses experience and can court the white working class voting bloc. Sen. Biden has experience, especially in foreign policy matters, and is willing to reach across party lines. It's looking like the Democratic camp has shaped up over the past couple months. However, what worries me is the constant pandering to religious groups who represent their own interests instead of the welfare of the nation. It will be interesting to see how this ticket plays out.

Early flip-flops in '08 election campaign

It's no secret that during the primary season, candidates pander towards the more extreme ends of their parties. However, as the campaign progresses, they focus on the center and swing votes, having already courted their own unique party factions. Obama is even trying to steal the religious vote by proposing new faith-based initiatives — an appalling move in my view, counter-intuitive even. While it's good he isn't trying to isolate religious voters, especially in swing-states like my (current) home state of Ohio, I'm worried enough about separation of church and state after this Bible-thumping Bush administration.

I'm sure you all have also heard about Obama's shunning of public financing for his campaign, going back on an earlier statement. Will this hurt his image as a government reformer? Read more here.

Say no to offshore drilling

In a move of populist pandering in an age of high gas prices, President George W. Bush...

has called on Congress to end a 27-year ban on drilling for oil in US coastal waters, to reduce dependence on imports.

We should not greatly endanger the environment when we should be looking for real solutions to the energy crisis. Offshore drilling -- like the loosening of gas taxes, or increased oil production -- is not a long-term solution. It will only make Americans more dependent on oil, and more dependent on something that destroys the environment in many more ways than one.

John McCain has made a complete U-turn on his offshore drilling policy, now following Bush in saying he supports it. His electoral opponent Barack Obama opposes both offshore drilling and the opening of ANWAR in Alaska.

Senator Obama dismissed Mr McCain's call as "political posturing" that would not bring down petrol prices and could endanger the country's coastal environment.

America's coastal environments have already been put in enough danger as the government takes a step back from regulating polluting industries. We have seen the vital role the coastal environment plays in protecting against hurricanes (New Orleans' natural defenses were down when Katrina hit) to soaking up what we pollute.

We shouldn't revert to old policies of drill-and-spill. I fail to see how this Republican ploy will do anything but hurt the United States in the long term. Isn't it time we moved beyond oil anyways?

Meet the next Democratic presidental nominee

Barack Obama!


According to CNN, Obama has passed the threshold of 2,118 delegates required for the nomination (no surprise as many superdelegates switch over). While Hillary Clinton says she will not make a final campaign decision tonight, it is clear her end has come. However, she mentioned recently that she is willing to be Obama's vice presidential candidate.

This should end months of fracture in the Democratic Party between these two heavyweights. Obama will have to immediately jump into the race and Clinton and Obama supporters will have to get over their differences to beat John McCain in November. We cannot have effectively four more years of Bush-like foreign policy.

The South Dakota and Montana primaries are still ongoing, with Clinton looking to win the former while Obama takes Montana.

One more thing: For all those on the far right screeching that Obama is a liberal socialist, he's not. He is, at most, a left-leaning moderate. I only wish he was more liberal; but, alas, in a country like America, "liberal" is a dirty word and the right dominates more than its fair share of the mainstream.

P.S. The timestamp should be 10:14 PM not 9:14. Blogger has issues with DST.

The new 'appeasement' controversy

Make diplomacy, not war
President Bush made an attack on Barack Obama and other Democrats in a speech in the Israeli parliament.

The president, at Israel's 60th anniversary celebration in Jerusalem, suggested that some Democrats were acting in the same way some Western leaders did when they appeased Hitler in the runup to World War II.

Those ready to talk to hostile regimes are not cowardly appeasers; they are actually courageous. Anyone can start a war (see George W. Bush), but it takes someone with diplomatic tact to keep the peace. Diplomacy, and thus engaged discussions, is required to do so. This is one of many reasons Obama is better-suited for the Oval Office than the incumbent officeholder. The Bush administration is responding to Iran's saber-rattling just the way Iran wants them to respond: with more saber-rattling. This makes war a greater possibility and raises tensions on both sides. It's time for both sides to back down.

It is not 'appeasement' to talk to the enemy, and in fact that word has become all-too-dirty since the appeasement of Hitler before the Second World War. To label everyone who does not support your every whim an 'enemy' is also a dangerous move this administration has chosen to take at a time where the world needs more peace, not more hostility.

The Republicans' need to smear Obama on foreign policy lies not only on their own warped views of the world, but also their insecurity as America is increasingly Democratic (by a 10% margin). Furthermore, Bush's speech was entirely inappropriate as it was in the Israeli Knesset. Is Bush trying to prove to the world we are the world's most polarized nation when he makes a veiled attack in his speech, or what? Hillary Clinton, Obama's competitor for the Democratic presidential candidacy, and looking more like she belongs on the other side of the aisle than ever, has also struck low blows, criticizing Obama's position on diplomacy with countries like Iran.

We need a president who's not afraid to talk with the other side.

The tale of John McCain and his crazy reverend

With all the over-hyped fury over Obama's pastor, you'd think McCain's even more insane 'spiritual guide' would make more headlines...

You may have heard of Rev. John Hagee, the McCain supporter who said God created Hurricane Katrina to punish New Orleans for its homosexual "sins." Well now meet Rev. Rod Parsley, the televangelist megachurch pastor from Ohio who hates Islam. According to David Corn of Mother Jones, Parsley has called on Christians to wage war against Islam, which he considers to be a "false religion." In the past, Parsley has also railed against the separation of church and state, homosexuals, and abortion rights, comparing Planned Parenthood to Nazis.

So much for freedom of religion. This is a man who wants to see all other religions but his destroyed. Interestingly enough, Obama denounced Jeremiah Wright; McCain hasn't even dropped the endorsement of Rev. Parsley. As far as I'm concerned, this Wright business has gone vastly overboard, politically speaking and considering the massive coverage its gotten over the past couple months.

A 'bitter' debate

For those who haven't been following the news, here's the scoop on the 'bitter' controversy:

At issue are comments he made privately at a fundraiser in San Francisco last Sunday. He was trying to explain his troubles winning over some working-class voters, saying they have become frustrated with economic conditions:

"It's not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

Both McCain and Clinton have mounted harsh attacks on Obama for his comments, but I must say, I do not disagree with what he said in San Francisco, even if it was a "mistake". Americans are becoming more xenophobic; they are turning more to religion. In fact, as religion has fallen out of favor with many of our European counterparts, Americans have been turning to Jesus in droves. In addition, guns seem to be more popular. These are all factors of working-class and small-town angst, and I don't think Obama should be reprimanded as "elitist" for voicing these views. That being said, Obama's comment was still pretty harsh (John Dickerson attempts to decipher it here).

Clinton and McCain are sounding awfully alike in their attacks. I'd say more criticism should be placed on Sen. Clinton for her condescending label-throwing.

More and more I am leaning towards Obama as my preferred candidate. Lucky for him, his comments don't seem to have cost him the uber-important Pennsylvania primary:

New polls meanwhile suggested that the furor sparked by Obama description of some small town Americans as "bitter" had yet to dent his hopes in Pennsylvania, where votes are cast on April 22, though his rival Hillary Clinton clung to a narrow lead.
...
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out Tuesday suggested that Obama may have escaped damage among Democrats in Pennsylvania.

It gave Clinton a lead over Obama of 46 percent to 41, down from double-digit margins in earlier polls, and also had her losing in both Indiana and North Carolina, which both vote next on May 6.

Super (Tuesday) aftermath

The primary results tonight solidified the campaign of Republican John McCain; he currently almost triples Romney in number of delegates. McCain won delegate-rich states such as New Jersey and New York, and is on track to win California. It looks like Huckabee supporters in the realist camp chose (i.e. defected to) McCain after all. However, Super Tuesday only intensified the campaign on the Democratic side between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Clinton currently is ahead of Obama in the crucial state of California, and has already taken such states as New Jersey, Massachusetts, and New York; whereas Obama found his strength in the south, taking Georgia. Candidates on both sides are in a near tie in the telling bellwether state of Missouri. Obama won his home state of Illinois, another important state delegate-wise. (When I say 'won' I mean either solidly won or is projected to win. Either way they'll take it.)

Points have been made about Obama's liberalness (e.g. National Journal report — see this post), but the labels "liberal" and "conservative" are more complex than we take them to be. Political Compass, a site I've written about before, has a new graph up of all '08 candidates positions on a two-dimentional political chart.

When examining the chart it is important to note that although most of the candidates seem quite different, in substance they occupy a relatively restricted area within the universal political spectrum. Democracies with a system of proportional representation give expression to a wider range of political views. While Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are depicted on the extreme left in an American context, they would simply be mainstream social democrats within the wider political landscape of Europe. Similarly, Hillary Clinton is popularly perceived as a leftist in the United States while in any other western democracy her record is that of a moderate conservative.

Obama is more 'liberal' on Iraq — in reality, all current candidates fail on Iraq in my book; there is a lack of moderacy — whereas Clinton has more left-leaning domestic initiatives, such as healthcare.

I have yet to support a Democrat, although I am starting to lean towards Clinton because I'm getting sick of Obama's pledge for yet-undefined 'change'. Overall the Democrats have failed to not disappoint this election season. I stick to my support of McCain on the Republican side, although he is, after all, a conservative.

For more results, see CNN.

P.S. I promise to devote the rest of this week to non-election news and issues. It's so easy to get carried away...

And then there were two...

Only Clinton and Obama remain as Edwards steps down.

Obama is gaining momentum on the Democratic side of the race.
We have lost John Edwards — the major anti-corporation, anti-lobbists, focus-on-poverty campaigner. Sadly, Edwards didn't have a chance (he was a bit too populist for my tastes anyways). It remains thus unclear where Edwards' support goes. In recent debates he sided more with Hillary Clinton, but since his supporters tend to be more left-leaning, it makes sense that a large number of them would go to Obama.

WSJ:

Mr. Edwards, after running as the sunny son of a mill worker in 2004, returned last year as the angry spear carrier of the hard-line left, running on a dark, conspiratorial form of populism and swapping in corporations for Republicans as the villain in his us-versus-them construct. Mr. Obama, on the other hand, has not just been selling possibilities and opportunities, but reconciliation and unity -- and, god forbid, promising to work with Republicans to meet the country's challenges. (Not surprisingly, throughout 2007, Mr. Edwards was the runaway favorite in the regular Kos reader straw poll -- besting Mr. Obama by 21 points as late as Jan. 2, 2008.)

The issue of race in the 2008 campaign has reached its peak with everyone from the news media to the candidates themselves endlessly blabbing about it — especially on the side of the Democrats. It has gotten ridiculous — nobody's focusing on racial issues; the larger focus has been on whether Bill Clinton was the 'first black president' (to answer that, one needs only to look at his skin color; the debate just enforces racial stereotypes and the color divide). Since we're on Bill Clinton, there has also been ample media speculation about the role he has played in his wife's campaign. Yes he was an above-par president, but will he meddle in his wife's affairs and further polarize the base?

Obama has been racking up endorsements, like his fellow up-and-comer on the other side of the aisle, John McCain, notably from most of the Kennedy family. He was also ranked the most liberal senator by the nonpartisan National Journal (which isn't saying much considering the conservatism in American politics). This could be used against him in ridiculous ways like in the case of the right smearing John Kerry in 2004.

Huckabee and Obama take Iowa

As predicted by the polls, Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama seen to have won the Iowa caucuses for their respective parties. They both won in the 30%s. Huckabee won the conservative vote in his Republican party whereas Obama took the independent and more progressive blocs.

The candidates hope this will raise their national rank. Obama polls at number two; Hillary Clinton still maintains control of the Democratic race. I had hoped McCain — the only bearable Republican in the race — would win, but I guess Huckabee's rise was inevitable, since GOP caucus-goers wanted a conservative choice. Iowa was a bad investment for Republican Mitt Romney, who has put millions into his Iowa campaign.

According to CNN, entrance polls say Huckabee won the backing of women and evangelical Christians who feel alienated by most of the other picks; and that the Democratic race is between experience and change — it seems like for now Obama's 'change' has trumped Clinton's 'experience'.

Dodd and Biden have both abandoned their White House campaigns.

Karl Rove gives campaign advice... to Barack Obama

The former Bush White House strategy guru gives guidance to none other than Democrat Barack Obama. Subject: How to beat Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential race.

Not that you have asked for advice, but here it is anyway: Iowa is your chance to best her. If you do not do it there, odds are you never will anywhere. You are way behind her in most national polls. The only way to change that is to beat her in Iowa so people around America take another look at you. You did a smart thing organising effectively in the early primary states. But you can take advantage of that only if you win Iowa and keep her from building an overwhelming sense of invincibility and inevitability.

I do not like Karl Rove, but his political views from a strategic standpoint are interesting. Rove's directions to Obama are to-the-point, making the article actually a good read. (I hope the Obama campaign reads this.)

Meanwhile, Clinton slams Obama in Iowa; Obama starts a website to log attacks by Clinton; and everyone — including the media — continues to miss the point when skirmishing over healthcare.

Now who's leading in the 2008 US presidential polls?

See new December 2007 polls, days before the Iowa primaries!

One of the most popular posts on this blog the past couple months has been my analysis of the latest poll data for the 2008 United States presidential election. I thought it a wise idea to follow up that post with the latest August polling.

Republicans
Romney's poll numbers paint him out as the underdog. Not so. The under-polled former Massachusetts governor is looking stronger than ever, and is probably going to win one, if not two, of the big upcoming party primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Giuliani — the frontrunner so far — is also looking at at least one primary win. Over-hyped, little-substance star Fred Thompson better get in the game or he will soon find himself unable to win his party's nomination.



My bet right now is that Romney will win Iowa and New Hampshire, and Giuliani will take home South Carolina. That will pit them against each other for the Republican Party's presidential nomination, a nomination that may break precedent from the look of things. Romney has a near-perfect track record, whereas Giuliani has spotty social views and a poor political history of bullying, cronyism, thinking of himself as above the law, and political mongering and showboating.

At this time we know almost nothing about Thompson or his political views, which is probably the reason he is doing so well. Once he does truly enter the race, expect his numbers to fall. The Republicans have not done as well in their campaign fundraising as their Democratic counterparts; John McCain seems to be almost out of the race because of his lack of funds. McCain's campaign has fallen apart these past few months and it is very unlikely that he will bounce back in full.

Democrats
Not much has changed on the Democratic front. Obama and Clinton are still duking it out for the rights to the presidential nomination, with Sen. Hillary Clinton coming out on top still. Sen. Barack Obama has made plenty-a-gaff while Clinton still acts like a political robot with more shallow policies than her Illinois senatorial counterpart (i.e. Obama).

John Edwards, who actually has a plan for healthcare in America as opposed to his Democratic opponents, is still stuck in third place and foreign policy guru Bill Richardson, blaming jet lag for him saying that he thinks homosexuality is a choice (I'll have to dock him a few points in my book), is staying pretty far down there when it comes to popular support.



Graph data source: RealClearPolitics poll averages, as of 17 August (note: since all the poll numbers did not add up to 100%, I entered the remainder in as "[Other/Undecided]".). For more election 2008 polls, see Polling Report. To see the candidates' stance on various issues, check out this helpful table — it's a good political resource for a hot election season (even though the election is over a year away).

481 days 'til election

The leading Democrat in the 2008 presidential race, Hillary Clinton, has been dwarfed by her husband, former President Bill Clinton, as the pundits go wild on America's biggest political couple. Let the gender role debate commence. The headline best summing all of this up: "Hillary's man trouble", referring not only to Clinton's attention magnet hubby but to male voters who are, well, sexist. It's sad, not just for America but for the state of our civilization, that even in the richest and one of the freest and most educated countries enough people still have problems with a black or a woman running for political office. A homosexual or atheist wouldn't stand a chance.

I've come to the conclusion that an Obama-Richardson would be a good ticket (Dodd is not bad either, but he is all the more less known).

However much Obama is shallow (see post), Hillary Clinton is robotic — a political chameleon of sorts whose policies seem to sometimes veer to the right, though she pleases as many as possible in her target demographics. Why, again, does she draw so much contempt from conservatives?
Obama and Clinton — the Democratic heavyweights in the '08 race — both try to kiss up to the special interests fueling the Democratic Party and Washington as a whole while imposing a sort of populism seen often enough in campaigns (see: the irrational electorate). This race, like any other in the United States, is fueled greatly by money. Money might not be able to buy you love, per se, but it can sure help launch you into political office!

McCain and Romney are practically bending over backwards for the GOP base(s). McCain, the senior-most member of the race, second-place to Giuliani, faces the ire of the religious right; anger from some moderates and liberals over his diehard support for the Iraq war and the Bush administration's war policy; and bad feelings from Republican Party partisans and anti-immigrant xenophobes over his moderate immigration views and ability to be bipartisan. Being able to jump across the isle and work with the other side is not always a good thing in American politics, oddly enough.

Selling out hasn't really helped Sen. McCain, but former Massachusetts governor and multimillionaire Mitt Romney's sharp-right-turn transformation is far, far more extreme than McCain's ass kissing. Romney is behind in the polls, but has loads of money, which is more than McCain can say. Social liberal Giuliani — though he has been trying his best to please both sides on abortion — still leads the Republicans in the polls; McCain follows. Poll ratings haven't swayed much for the Democrats either. Clinton leads, then Obama, then Edwards. See this post for more.

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