Wednesday, 11 April 2007

Who's leading 2008 election polls?

See new December 2007 polls, days before the Iowa primaries!

Source for party primary polling and (averaged) chart data: Polling Report (various polls) for Democratic '08 candidates.
In most primary polls for Democrats, Clinton seems to have a definite lead over her closer rivals (often scoring in the 30s in terms of percentage), Obama and Edwards. Obama bested Edwards.

Sorce for primary polling and (averaged) chart data: Polling Report (various polls) for Republican '08 candidates.
For Republican primaries, Giuliani’s numbers are quite good. His averages in the 20s or 30s (percentage), with McCain lagging behind in the 10s or 20s. Gingrich and Romney often lag behind runner-up McCain and the leader, Giuliani, with high single-digit percentages. However, in some polls Fred Thompson, who has seen a resurgence in popularity, is at third place with percentages as high as 10 (he is not listed on most polls).

Gingrich was also not included in some polls, so I averaged up those both Thompson and Gingrich were in. Overall, the numbers lean towards a clear first-place — for the time being — Giuliani, with McCain in second place and Romney in a more distant third. Like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Fred Dalton Thompson has not announced his candidacy yet, but his recent admission that he has cancer leads one to suspect he is getting things off his chest that could hurt him later in his campaign.

Edwards has definitely seen a boost in his popularity as of late, but Obama still looks like a runner-up to clear-leader Clinton. Some polls' inclusion of Al Gore as a choice bumped down Edwards and Obama to an extent. I did not use the polls where Al Gore had a standing, although he usually polled third far below Obama and in front of Edwards by a small amount. In GOP polls without Fred Thompson, Giuliani had a solid win over McCain, who had a solid win over Gingrich, who had a minor lead over Romney.

Remember people participating in such primary polls either are registered with the party or support the party. In these polls, a pollster would not ask a Democrat about a Republican candidate, though in head-to-head and general (national) polls that can be the case.

From national polling during various times of March and late February, some results are surprising.
Source: RealClearPolitics averages of various major head-to-head 2008 presidential candidate polls (e.g. Time, Newsweek, Zogby, Rasmussen).
Giuliani beats anyone — Clinton, Obama, or Edwards — in the head-to-head polls. McCain beats Clinton and narrowly beats Obama. Giuliani’s win over Obama is slimmer than that of his wins over Edwards or Clinton. In the RCP average, Edwards beats McCain; Clinton smashes Romney but Edwards and Obama demolish him with a lead of 20 or so percentage points. Romney may be weak but Edwards does have more head-to-head strength than his overall.

Other party nomination data:
For the GOP nomination from highest percentage to lowest: Giuliani, McCain, Thompson, Romney (Gingrich not included). For the Dems: Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Gore. Gore’s run is extremely, extremely unlikely, especially since everyone is already electioneering more than usual. He has not stated his candidacy and pretty much will not.

Money and fundraising are major issues in this election. In the US one needs a massive amount of money to run a campaign, not that that's the only thing a candidate needs. This race has already broken plenty of records.

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merjoem32 said...

Interesting figures. I seems that the figures of the
recent election 2008 polls did not differ much from the polls about a month ago. Giuliani has also remained on top of the Republican nomination but only time will tell if he will remain there.

clearthought said...

I agree. The real issue is whether people will actually vote for him when the election comes around. I don't know what McCain's deal is, but he is shrinking as a presidential candidate as Fred Thompson is growing.

As far as the Democrats go, there is less major competition as there is with the Republicans.

For both Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, it comes down to how they target their bases. They are both odd candidates when it comes to that.