The hyped-up Iranian nuclear threat

Not to rain on the hawks' parade, but apparently Iran stopped nuclear weapons production back in 2003.

In a blow to Bush administration hawks demanding military strikes on Iran, a US intelligence report reveals that Tehran's secret nuclear weapons programme was shut down four years ago.

The finding which has come as a surprise to friends and foes of the US concluded: "We do not know whether [Iran] currently intends to develop nuclear weapons." That is in sharp contrast to an intelligence report two years ago that stated Iran was "determined to develop nuclear weapons".

US officials said the report showed that the Bush administration was right to conclude that Tehran intends to develop nuclear weapons in the long term. They also said that Iran was forced to end its secret programme because of financial sanctions and diplomacy backed up with the threat of force.

Perhaps peaceful means such as diplomacy and sanctions (creating political pressures within a country) work after all.

The report is sure to cause a stir within the hawkish White House, but the NIE did put in a few good words about the Bush administration, just to ease the strain of conflicting views.

Here are some facts about the National Intelligence Estimate report.

President Bush, after spending years raising the hype around Iran's nuclear program, found a way to twist the tension-relieving report into just another warning about the Iranian threat. Never mind the evidence his jousts with Iran over nukes have been relying on have been pulled out from under him; I am sure hawks are not too pleased either with the recent intelligence report.

If anything it is good news that there is less pressure on all parties to make a move in the Iran nuke stalemate. But even though Iran may have stopped developing nuclear weapons for now, it's good to keep up the pressure, says a Guardian commentator. Iran may have suspended its program, but that doesn't mean it cannot, or will not, start it up again. What Bush predicted as WWIII with Iran seems very unlikely at this point.

NIE report confirms Iraqi civil strife

Nothing we didn't already know about the Iraqi civil war, but the US National Intelligence Estimate summary report (PDF) has some interesting insight to offer. Moreover what will be interesting is the potential shock-wave it will send in Washington.

This latest report is proof that even without Iran and other insurgency-inflaming forces there is ample sectarian — 'Iraqi-on-Iraqi' — violence fueling the civil war there.

A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.

What else makes this NIE different from the rest? It's shift in focus. The United States' intelligence community is quite possibly finally coming out of the shell it ventured into following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. 2002 was neither a good year for American democracy nor was it a good year for American intelligence-gathering.

There is not only a lot of bombs going off in Baghdad, but political bombs in Washington too. How will the report be received by a Congress that seems to be more bark than bite on foreign policy and squaring off with the White House?

One interesting fact: the NIE failed to talk about President Bush's soon-to-be-implemented (probably) 21,500 troop surge in Iraq.

The NIE was a major issue a while back, when calls for that reports full disclosure were being made — obviously something Bush was against.

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