Sarkozy's UMP a winner in France

So ends France's series of 2007 elections...
France's new president, Nicolas Sarkozy, had a modest win in the French polls over the weekend.

His conservative UMP party won the most seats in France's parliament, but did not live up to the high expectations placed upon it for this election. Europe seems to be continuing its turn to the moderate right, just as South and Latin America see a more populist left transformation.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP party says it will press ahead with wide-ranging reforms, after winning a majority in parliamentary elections.

Although the centre-right UMP failed to secure a predicted landslide, it said it had a mandate to implement change.

Its plans include tighter immigration laws, tax cuts and longer jail terms.

Since it is a pain to write out all the election numbers, here is what the seat composition of the French National Assembly looks like by party (source: BBC News):


Crunching the numbers
So the Socialists gained seats, going from 141 in 2002 to 185 in this past election. Its chief rival and the only party with more seats is the center-right UMP, which had a weakened majority compared to in 2002: UMP lost 43 seats. By my tally there are 577 total seats in the parliament, and approximately 349 belong to right-leaning parties, 226 to left-leaning ones, and 2 others to spare. The two biggest parties, UMP and the Socialists, have 499 seats combined. UMP has a 54.42% majority overall.

Royal couple split
On another note, Sarkozy's former Socialist challenger in the presidential election election earlier this year, Segolene Royal, has revealed she is splitting with the Socialist party leader Francois Hollande for personal reasons. They were partners for 25 years and have four children. Royal also announced she is running for the position of party chair, which Hollande currently occupies. Oddly enough, this further development of the rift on the left side of French politics ousted Sarkozy's election win from the top news story. Kind of like how the announcement of Apple's iPhone (ooh, shiny and cool!) overshadowed Bush's much-awaited Iraq troop "surge" speech?

Sarko hearts 'reform'
Hopefully Sarkozy will reform France's restricted economy. The public sector is far too large; government intervention makes growth hard; and the economy needs to be liberalized overall. The cabinet might now be shuffled and additional aspects of the new government ironed out.

As expected Sarkozy aligned himself with US President Bush at the G8 summit earlier this year — to an extent. He also worked with his fellow world leaders to push Bush into a wall on climate change, resulting in at least a half-hearted attempt at jabbing the issue. Apparently the French leader was also caught drunk at the G8.

Le prochain président de la France: Nicolas Sarkozy

Nicolas Sarkozy is the winner of France's presidential election, say early results.

Sarkozy has vowed for change. His Socialist challenger, Segolene Royal, has conceded defeat and thanked the 17 million who voted for her.

BBC News:

Mr Sarkozy is estimated to have won 53% of the vote, compared to 47% for socialist Segolene Royal.

The turnout was the highest in decades at 85.5%.
...
Mr Sarkozy has promised to try to reform France to face the challenges of the 21st century, with putting the nation back to work at the top of his agenda.

But the BBC's Caroline Wyatt in Paris says he will have to work hard to unite the French, and try to win round those who voted against him.

More than 3,000 police have been deployed in Paris and its multi-ethnic suburbs in case Mr Sarkozy's victory sparks a repeat of the riots seen in 2005.

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France: voting for change

Sarkozy v. Royal comes to an electoral close in less than two hours...

Some French voters think Sarkozy would do a better job at changing France for the better; some think Royal would. Sarkozy would be more likely to make tough, necessary changes, but his policies are sometimes undesirable and he has been courting the far right in order to ensure a win in this election. Royal, on the other hand, may be too weak and politically inexperienced to enact the change France desperately needs, and she still sticks to her old left foundation — something she, and France, needs to move away from. Job security and market liberalization are two issues at hand, as are immigration and law enforcement. The reform of the government structure in general is also needed. Royal spends too much; Sarkozy invades privacy and uses power too much.

As of now, over 75% of voters have cast their ballots for either Sarkozy or Royal in the second and final round of the French presidential election. This is the highest turnout in decades. The first round also brought out near-record turnout.

Some are pessimistic about whether this election will bring change. No matter who wins, they need to be open to defying protests and what seems like the defiance of the public to reforms for the greater good. Current President Jacques Chirac was too afraid to follow through on his initiatives for change, and many French politicians flinch every time they see protests against the reforms they wish to pass. Whoever wins has the support of the public, and should use that support to actually change whatever needs changing — and many things do. On the other hand, the winner does not want to turn into a dictator by public choice, per se.

This election has been full of controversy and debate, bringing the French seemingly closer to the politics France is known for. However these are politics with a new face: voters, forced once again to choose between left and right, are not following traditional voting labels. One memorable event has been Royal warning that her left-wing supporters could riot if Sarkozy wins, which can either be taken as a political threat or a misunderstood musing. Riot police and extra law enforcement have been sent to Paris to avoid mass riots (remember 2005?) if political tempers flare as the result of a Sarkozy win, especially among the poorer suburb dwellers and immigrants.

In France, the president is a very powerful figure, and one could only hope Sarkozy or Royal will not abuse that power. So will it be the traditional leftist with a new spin, Socialist Segolene Royal, or the center-right (neo-)Gaullist, Nicolas Sarkozy? I’m guessing the latter. Although he has the will power to pass the reforms France needs, he also has a tendency to misuse power. Royal just doesn’t seem cut out to be the leader either.

Nonetheless its not my choice that counts, the votes of the French people will decide who the next leader of France will be, and those votes are important indeed. Bolstering France in the international community will be yet another task for the next president; and globalization is a huge issue at hand, politicially, culturally (immigration), and economically (trade and jobs). For example, both candidates have been bad-talking the EU, an overused scapegoat for poor government policy and an 'evil' Sarkozy or Royal are trying to make voters think they could fight against and protect France. This protectionism will certainly not help France's troubled economy.

Early results will be announced later today, and official results will come on 10 May. Several polls from very late on 4 May put Sarkozy 10 percentage points in front of his challenger.

Centrist Francois Bayrou, who lost the first round, has seen his popularity skyrocket and may yet be able to form a moderate political coalition with his weak UDF party. Go Bayrou!

Wikipedia has an extensive article on the election.

Update:
Early results claim Sarkozy as the winner of this second round vote. Royal has admitted defeat and police are preparing for political unrest in case rioting brakes out as a result of Sarkozy's electoral triumph.

technorati tags: france+election+2007, french+presidental+election, nicolas+sarkozy, segolene+royal, in+the+news, france+reform+politics, globalization

Presidential candidates debate

Interesting debate between Democratic candidates for the 2008 election in South Carolina a few days ago. No clear winner, but the consensus is that Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton did well. Near-unknown Gravel and a-bit-more-known Kucinich both represented a more left-wing viewpoint, but less popular, fringe of the party. There was ample Bush bashing and an array of Iraq war criticism.

France’s Royal and Sarkozy (see Sarkozy v. Royal) also dished out fighting words in their presidential debate. This Sunday, the second and final round of the election will take place, and France will choose either Sarkozy or Royal as president. Far-right Le Pen, who was defeated in the first round, urged his voters to abstain from voting in the upcoming polls, which will help the Royal team and hurt center-right Sarkozy.

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Sarkozy v. Royal: the final chapter begins

Some new updates on the presidential election in France...

Although votes in this close election, which has enjoyed high turnout, are still being tallied, it looks as if there will indeed be a left-right battle in the second round of the French presidential election.

Centre-right Nicolas Sarkozy will meet Socialist Segolene Royal in the run-off of France's presidential election on 6 May, according to initial results.

Mr Sarkozy, a former interior minister, came first with 30%, ahead of Ms Royal, who is bidding to be France's first woman president, on about 25%.

Centrist Francois Bayrou got 18%, and far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen 11%.

Voting throughout the day reached record numbers, with turnout put at 85% - the highest for nearly 50 years.

On a bright spring day, disillusionment with politicians and their promises did not translate into apathy, reports the BBC's Caroline Wyatt in Paris.

For such a close election, these results look almost identical to what the candidates were polling in the days leading up to today's vote.

Campaigning will restart on 27 April, with the second round of voting on 6 May and the final results coming four days later. One should prepare for an intense campaign as left meets right in the nation that came up with the political identifications of "left" and "right" — a country that shows that history in its oft-partisan politics.

Royal, according to the aforementioned preliminary results, polled higher than previous opinion polls had speculated, in part because of the old-fashioned manner polling is done and the fact Royal has many young supporters.

It is very good that turnout was so high, as a politically apathetic France would hardly be the France we know. In a democracy the people must take action and that's what we've seen — for better or for worse — today in France. And even though centrist, left-right bridging Bayrou did not make it to the second round, his decent support has shown a politician in the middle can make it somewhere. Maybe someday that gap between left and right will be bridged for the Fifth Republic, whether by Bayrou or by someone else. It would have been interesting if Bayrou could have made it to the run-off. He was polling higher than Sarkozy in head-to-head polls before the election.

More worrying, however, is the support for extreme rightist Le Pen: one in 10 voted for him. At least this time he didn't make it to the second round, though. The fact Le Pen still enjoyed such support only illustrated further the political repair France is in dire need of.

Now: I am still torn between the gaffe-prone, old left-styled Royal and the xenophobic, right-wing-courting, 'mini-Bush' Sarkozy.

Update:
It's official...

FIRST ROUND RESULTS
Nicolas Sarkozy - 30.78%
Segolene Royal - 25.32%
Francois Bayrou - 18.47%
Jean-Marie Le Pen - 10.89%
Source: French Interior Ministry at 2100 GMT

technorati tags: france+presidential+election+2007, nicolas+sarkozy, bayrou, sarkozy, segolene+royal, royal, election+france, president+france, french+politics, news, voting, le pen, polls

La France vote 2007: haute assemblée dans la première étape de l'élection présidentielle

Or: France votes 2007: high turnout in first stage of presidential election

The French election is still unpredictable.

BBC News covers the news well...

French voters have been streaming to the polls to cast their ballot in a presidential election seen as the nation's most unpredictable in decades.

With three hours to go, nearly 74% had already voted, exceeding the total turnout for the last elections in 2002.

Twelve hopefuls are seeking a spot in the second-round run-off on 6 May.

The leading candidates are centre-right Nicolas Sarkozy, socialist Segolene Royal, centrist Francois Bayrou and far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen.

At 1500 GMT, turnout stood at 73.87%, according to the interior ministry, the highest rate in a first round since at least 1981.

Correspondents say many French voters approached the election in a mood of mingled fear and hope, believing France needs change after 12 years under President Jacques Chirac but unsure which direction to opt for.
...
There are more than one million newly registered voters, the biggest increase in 25 years.

RESULTS COUNTDOWN
1600 GMT - 22 April: Polls begin to close
1800 GMT - 22 April: Early exit polls
1800 GMT - 25 April: Official results
27 April: Campaigning restarts
6 May: Second round poll
10 May: Final official results

Whoever wins, says the BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus, it will mark a change of political generation and perhaps a shift in French international priorities, making this election matter even to those outside France.

BBC News has an interesting feature, now common for many major news stories, showing the views of an array of 'ordinary' people on the issue at hand.

I'd say my views are most on par with Muriel Calvez, who states:

Sadly, I feel that my vote will probably be more of a vote against a candidate - or several candidates - rather than a vote in favour of anyone.
...
The problem with the rest of the candidates is that they represent extremes - either the extreme left or the extreme right.

I consider myself more of a centre-left voter, but I cannot find any candidate that truly represents my views.

I feel like there is a lot of choice - but also no choice at all.

She said she will most likely vote for Segolene Royal or Francois Bayrou.

Hazem Eseifan also makes some strong points on the two candidates he is torn between: Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Bayrou.

I will watch both candidates closely between now and election day. I would like to see Sarkozy softening up a bit and for Bayrou to sharpen up.

See also a LRB article on the elections and, a NYT article on how the poverty of immigrants and the troublesome suburbs will play such a large role in the elections.

Sarkozy is disliked by the immigrants; liked by the tough 'law and order' types and xenophobes. He is trying to shift to the right to court some of Le Pen's lighter supporters. Royal's political weaknesses, along with Sarkozy's right-tilt, have empowered centrist Bayrou.

Even for non-voting, third parties such as myself it is a hard choice. Sarkozy will no doubt reform the reform-needy French system, but are some of policies too hard? Royal is ambitious and, at first glance, seems like a model modern liberal, but she is really just aligned with the policies of the Old Left — not in sync with the modern politik (which France ever more needs to be). Bayrou looks decent too, but, like the other two, has interventionist tendencies. He also believes in subsidized farming. France needs to open up and move its economy forward, not remain closed and keep slowing down.

technorati tags: sarkozy, bayrou, royal, france, french+election, france+president+election+2007, politics+de+France

Too close to call: French vote unpredictable

The first round of the French presidential election draws nearer. After today, opinion polls can no longer be published as to not compromise the vote.

Roughly 40% of the French electorate are still unsure of who they’ll vote for. The question is, how many of that 40% will vote?

At this time Sarkozy still has a good lead overall (nearly/about one-third of the vote), with Royal also following in the 20s (%) and Bayrou with not even 20% of the overall vote. Of course, since many are undecided, this election is looking very close, especially in the second round. Bayrou ruled out an alliance with Royal — and vice versa — against their center-right challenge, Nicolas Sarkozy. It is scary how a racist, extreme rightist like Jean-Marie Le Pen can still hold on to 14% support.

Polls indicate that in a second round run, Sarkozy would clearly beat Royal, and Bayrou would beat Sarkozy. However, since Royal is likely to beat Bayrou to get to the second round, who knows. The French will go to the polls to vote for a range of 12 candidates this Sunday the 22nd. Whichever two come out on top will face off on 6 May.

This election is one of the closest in recent history – and whoever wins will be the most powerful person in France.

The Economist

Reigning large in this election are major issues such as immigration (see 2005 minority riots, which showed Sarkozy's ugly side) and law and order; the economy (unemployment is up, job security and massive civil service sector is a problem, as is lack of liberalization); the shunning of aspects of the EU (which the leaders need to take initiative on nonetheless even if the people do not understand); and big government, in which the current French bureaucracy trumps (corruption included). Another political matter is the divided French left; considering France is a typically left-leaning country, that is an issue. One thing I have noticed is the lack mention of foreign policy by the candidates.

Where the three main candidates stand on issues shows their contrast, and similarities. Many of Bayrou's proposals are attractive, but, as The Economist touches as in their leader supporting Sarkozy, he is not a political heavyweight. Good news about Sarkozy: he does stand for reform; France needs all the reform it can get at this point.

No doubt change will be on its way.

News sites in depth on election:

BBC News

The Economist

Financial Times

Blogs to watch:

Prospect Magazine's France Profounde

French Élection 2007

Other:

Can’t forget Wikipedia!

technorati tags: france+elections, french+presidential+elections+2007, bayrou, sarkozy, royal, le+pen, election, news, politics, reference

French presidential elections heat up

The race for the office of president of France is heating up. First round voting begins on the 22nd.

This race will see a new ideology in the main spotlight, trying to bridge the gap between left and right. In fact, the terms 'political left' and 'political right' were established long ago due to assembly seating. The main candidates are as follows: from the right: former finance and interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy; from the left: relative political novice and Socialist Party candidate Segolene Royal; from the center (surprise, surprise): Francois Bayrou. Royal is the first major femail candidate in a French presidential election. Bayrou ran last election, but didn't even get 7% of the vote in the first round. I’ve read each of the candidates positions on a number of issues on their websites (thanks Google translation services!).

The Wikipedia article on the election offers a full list of candidates, the issues at hand, and updated poll numbers. Bayrou's political affiliation may seem center-right, but his policies are quite centrist. He is, from what I know so far, a very moderate social democrat — with economic views similar to my own. Out of the three main contenders Bayrou is the only one without an elite education. He is even still a part time farmer!

Sarkozy no doubt has the most experience, and Royal has the least, but that does not make him the best. (Royal did, like Bayrou, come from a modest background, and for her credit broke free from sexism and rode up the ranks of French politics.) Royal's seemingly endless flow of political gaffes have definitely tarnished her public image. Sarkozy has been charged with abuse of power and racism — two things the Fifth Republic hardly needs.

There is, however, a fourth main candidate, the ever-reoccurring Jean Marie Le Pen of the far-right National Front. No worries, his chance of winning is slim at best. Sarkozy's party, Union for a Popular Movement, or UMP, is currently the party in charge of both the executive and legislature.

Current President Jacques Chirac may still have some popularity, but many view his lengthy presidency — over a decade — as a failure. The former mayor of Paris failed to meet the promising goals he set up.

In the United States, for example, the Electoral College, comprised of people each state legislature picks, elects presidents. The winning candidate is the one who receives the most electoral votes, and since they are tied to the state of origin, candidates usually focus state-by-state. In France things are different. If there is no candidate with a clear 50% or more majority in the first round of voting, which is usually the case, the two candidates with the highest percentage of the vote face off in a second round. This year the second round is on 6 May.

At the moment (according to polls, see here also), Sarkozy is the leader overall, taking a third to a fourth of the vote, whereas Royal is taking around a fourth. If he faced Royal in a second round, he would win. However, if he faced Bayrou chances are he would loose. Polls can only be taken with a grain of salt — many respondents are unsure of their choice and may easily change their minds, especially once official campaigning kicks off. Official campaigning will start on the 9th and end on the 20th.

Whoever wins, the best outcome would be a better France, a France with more political discourse and less corruption and apathy; more understanding for newcomers but also enough strength to maintain law and order; a France who sticks to its guns in foreign policy, but also keeps healthy relations and utilizes fair but free trade. (All three main candidates to support a free market, even Royal — which is a good thing.) A major topic is also youth employment; we recently saw rioting by young adults over job security. Royal has recently stumbled on that topic.

Perhaps a Bayrou win will help transform French politics, giving a voice to the public through the middle of the political spectrum — which happens to be the most open area. Moderacy can eve unite bitter rivals, left and right, Euroskeptics and Europhiles, into more rational policies and less abrasive views. Extremism will leave one side or the other left out and annoyed — it will either stalemate the government, create a political rubber stamp and increase the ruling side's thirst for power, and/or spread a wave of political apathy across the nation. Centrism helps maintain political discourse, so the public does not feel alienated by the talking heads of the left and right.

There are many issues at hand in this election. Whoever wins will be the most powerful person in France, the leader of one of the great powers. Let the electioneering begin — and the insults fly — as the heat of the French political season is among us (parliamentary elections are later this year). More coverage soon.

technorati tags: france, politics, french+politics, france+election, president+france+2007+election, segolene+royal, royal, nicolas+sarkozy, francois+bayrou, bayrou, sarkozy, jean-marie+le+pen, jacques+chirac, news, in+the+news

Presidential predicaments (and my solutions)

US President Bush rebuffed by Senate panel (Washington Post) over his Iraq plan. Of course, it is not too much of a big deal — the Congressional resolutions against Bush's troop surge being nonbinding and all. What was the Democrats’ win supposed to accomplish again? The president has also been asked to stop being an idiot, like that's going to happen. Makes State of the Union speech less important than last year's... and more boring. (Slate seemed to be the only mainstream news site to have much on the State of the Union, with three articles by three column heavyweights. Obviously the SOTU news was on A1 of every major American newspaper, but still it seemed like a bigger overall deal last year. Consequently, Slate has a massive amount of coverage of the Scooter Libby trial. Speaking of the Libby trial, that is also not shining too positive of a light upon the Bush administration, nor are Bush's repeated assertions that he is 'the decider' (Slate) (now the "decision-maker" too) on basically everything not least Iraq. Way to be bipartisan, Dubya! Actually, he may have actually helped with bipartisanship in America: now both Democrats and Republicans are turning against him. Lastly be sure to check out Vice President Cheney's CNN interview and Bush's lackluster SOTU speech (Daily Kos) in full. Also see the speech topic-by-topic.

My advice for Bush: well, you already doing really bad on all angles of politics, so I'd say try to change the US's image abroad, but, unlike what you have been already doing, change it so that others see the US in a more positive light, not a negative one; also pay attention to the Constitution, believe it or not it is your friend; listen to the right people on Iraq and other areas of foreign policy; stop injecting religion — fundamentalist or otherwise — into government; practice what you preach and be bipartisan, on the other hand stop making the Executive branch the only one — in your mind — with any power and say in the United States government; worse comes to worse ask your dad for help, though he was not by any means a great president he was a hell of a lot better than you; you have two years left (yeah I'm counting down), make the most of them by actually doing good.

Israeli President Katsav indicted for rape, asked to step down by PM Olmert — who himself is having plenty of problems — and is on temporary leave (IHT).

My advice for Katsav: step down and make the most of the rest of your dwindling political career; also remember rape is bad and there's probably something in the Torah against that (no kidding).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not doing so well; he is facing resistance from multiple areas of the government. There is also opposition by (New York Times) other powerful figures in Iranian politics largely over Ahmadinejad's handling of Iran's nuclear program and the UN sanctions (BBC News) imposed as a result of Iran's defiance of the international community. He is in political trouble also over the economy. Wait, governments are supposed to help the economy? That is one thing Bush and Ahmadinejad have in common: forgetting about crucial domestic issues.

My advice to Ahmadinejad: you may have a lot of oil, but that does not mean you cannot be roughed up; remember what Bush did to Iraq; go along with democratic reform contrary to your hardliner position; don't use your nukes, or better yet stop developing them — nuclear power is fine, nuclear weapons are not; the Holocaust did happen by the way.

What could possibly be damaging to the ruling conservative French political party UMP's star candidate for the presidency, current Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, is something certainly not new to the United States: spying with political motives. Yes, apparently the xenophobic, often racist Sarkozy, protégé of current French President Jacques Chraic, has used the secret police to spy on an adviser of his left-leaning political rival and frontrunner Socialist candidate for the presidency, Segolene Royal, who has also run into some political trouble, though minor, over a gaffe (Bloomberg) over Qubec. He is now not surprisingly experiencing dissent from (The Times) both within and outside of his party over that spying. The French presidential election will be in April.

My advice for Sarkozy: stop being a xenophobe against Muslims and others, that doesn't help anything; lose to Royal and I'll be happy.
My advice for Royal: don't mess this one up.


Song currently stuck in my head: "The Crane Wife 3" by The Decemberists.
I am feeling much better! Ironically, it was being out in cold weather that cured my cold...

technorati tags: bush, iraq, iran, israel, katsav, sarkozy, royal, politics, news, current, france, iraq, state+of+the+union, bush, cheney, ahmadinejad