Sunday, 4 February 2007

Conflict Meter

It has been over a month since the last Conflict Meter report on 31 December 2006. Let's see what turmoil is going on now and what strife is in the conflict forecast...


  • Current: moderate (political, other)
  • Trend: downward
  • Forecast: questionable, instable, insurgent (warlord and Islamist; Ethopia was factor); stable government and international support needed (AU and UN, as well as US)

  • Current: very, very high (sectarian and otherwise — terrorist; Iran (v. US), Syria (?) — targeted at practically anyone (depending))
  • Trend: up
  • Forecast: down a bit, assuming Baghdad security increases from Iraq govt. and US troop operations though don't get too optimistic; still very bad

  • Current: high (Taleban resurgence against govt., troops)
  • Trend: flat, a bit elevated
  • Forecast: popular opinion worsening, Taleban might look like heroes compared to other forces

  • Current: violence was worse — tense calm at the moment; moderate political within (ceasefire in place); heightened with Israel
  • Trend: lowering within Palestine because of ceasefire and lessening power struggle (?); Israel relations worsening from recent suicide attack
  • Forecast: could get better or worse between Hamas and Fatah; more impending problems with Israel unless they choose better — altruistic even — policy... Israel should not make the many suffer for the actions of the few, and Arab militants should not let their fellow countrypeople and Muslims, and innocents, suffer for their violent actions

    Overall trend of conflict from beginning of Jan 2007 to beginning of Feb 2007:
    Up some

    (Red up: up greatly; green up: up some. Red down: down greatly from high level; green down: down some from low level.)

    *=Within Palestine (Hamas v. Fatah): possibly down because of ceasefire, though it was elevated; Palestine and Israel violence: up; hopefully no further Israeli extra-border action will be taken.

    Did I miss any current violent conflicts? Let me know by commenting or emailing me.

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