States, failed and failing

The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine have published the 2007 Failed States Index.

The index measures the vulnerability of failure for 177 of the states surveyed — i.e. the chance of outright collapse. As the index says,

The world’s weakest states aren’t just a danger to themselves. They can threaten the progress and stability of countries half a world away.

The index uses 12 socio-economic and political indicators to score the potential for failure for each nation.

Let's see who made the top-12 cut this year...
1. Sudan
2. Iraq
3. Somalia
4. Zimbabwe
5. Chad
6. Côte d'Ivoire
7. Democratic Republic of the Congo
8. Afghanistan
9. Guinea
10. Central African Republic
11. Haiti
12. Pakistan

Most of the states are in Africa (eight), and the rest are in the Middle East (three) — hold Haiti, a turmoil-stricken Caribbean nation.

Let's now take a look at these top 12 most faltering nation-states. Sudan is number one. Because of the state-encouraged ethnic genocide and fighting in its Darfur region, among other political reasons including international pressure, Sudan is a breeding ground for state collapse and instability.

Iraq is another obvious one: the sectarian civil war and the insurgency arising from the occupation, not to mention an unbelievably week government that even the strongest military force on the planet has a hard time keeping up. Iraq practically is a failed state.

Next is Somalia, which is more worse off governmentally than Iraq. The consensus a few years ago kept in line with the common wisdom about the Horn of Africa state: it is a failed one. Islamic rebels, traditional warlords, and foreign troops (Ethiopians supported by America) are all forces pushing this country on the brink of irreversible collapse. Its people aren't doing too well either. In the cases of both Somalia and Iraq, the worst fighting and actions posing the strongest threat to stability occur in the capitals, Mogadishu (I spelled it correctly on my first try!) and Baghdad, respectively.

Zimbabwe is high up on the list because of the humanitarian and economic disaster there. The inflation rate is tin the thousands and the thuggish leader Robert Mugabe shows no signs of giving up power, but even his own party is becoming discontented.

Chad is inheriting a lot of the problems of its neighbor Sudan. It also has problems of its own similar to the other failed or failing states in the index.

Côte d'Ivoire I do not know much about. From some research on the internet I have figured out the country also known as the Ivory Coast is experiencing civil war, or the aftermath of such a war. Elections have been put off time after time because of the fighting or the prospect of fighting. It has received little coverage by American media, like many other major world issues, including those talked about in the index and this blog post. Some consider the West African nation out of civil war, but the prospect of renewed fighting is daunting.

DPRC, or rather Congo has been recently stabilized by UN peacekeeping. It finally had elections last summer after years of bloody war.

Afghanistan is similar in many ways to Iraq, though not as dire: insurgency to foreign occupation, weak government, foreign and local Islamic extremist forces, etc.

Further down the list, Haiti has been in political mayhem for years now and UN peacekeepers are trying their best to maintain some form of stability.

Pakistan is facing the threat of an overthrow by extremists or other groups, and opposition to its dictatorial president Musharraf for allying himself with and against the people, with America, and with the militants. Not to mention the surprising inflammation caused my him dismissing a senior judge who disagreed with his regime's legal and political policies.

As we see, some instability is centered on certain regions (e.g. Darfur) or cities (e.g. Baghdad; Mogadishu; Port-au-Prince), whereas some is nation-wide (e.g. Zimbabwe).

Iraq and Somalia are probably the worst on the list, although none of the aforementioned 12 are by any means stellar in their state political security. If Palestine was a state — though it is looking like two right now — it would surely be near the top of the index due to its civil war and massive amounts of homegrown terrorism.

The Economist has made a map of the top 10 countries of the Failed State Index.



For more on happy topics like this one, see Conflict Meter.

Do we really not care about Somalia?

Do we not care about Somalia?

There has been ever more fighting in Mogadishu this past month, taking the lives of over 1,000 people. Nearly half a million have fled the capital since the beginning of this year, and the situation is looking bleak. One one end is the traditional warlords, only interested in their own power, and the Ethiopian forces fighting against the Council of Islamic Courts, fueled by ideology, along with other militants. The Islamists are weak, but some more radical Islamists, possibly even some members of al Qaeda, might be pouring in to assist their 'brothers' in the fight against foreign troops, the warlords, and the very weak secular government. Somalia is a hotbed for extremist insurgency; terrorist recruiters are just waiting to turn a group of disgruntled citizens to the radical side. The UIC was forced out earlier this year, but traces remain.

Ultimately there are the Somalian troops and police, the US-backed Ethiopian troops, what's left of the UIC and some radical supporters and their militias, warlord-led militias, and the ordinary citizens stuck in the middle. Sounds a lot like Iraq: foreign troop involvement, militias and parties interested in ideology and power, an influx of radical Islamic terrorists, and a weak government. Is Mogadishu becoming the next Baghdad?

The US government has shown some interest, but only in combating Islamic forces — which has so far only empowered (more) radical movements — in the 'war on terror'. America has even aided the menacing North Korea in breaking sanctions to do so.

Just as is the case in Iraq, Sudan, Burma, and Somalia, we pay less attention to the ordinary citizens effected most than any other involved party. In Iraq a soldier's death is greeted with much more attention than the death of 10 innocents. Somalia is once again receiving more of the tragic spotlight because of 'war on terror' battlefield ties it holds.

US lets N Korea violate sanctions

Another nation's supposed fight against 'terrorism' trumps N Korea restrictions over nukes in Bush administration's priorities
The New York Times reports:

Three months after the United States successfully pressed the United Nations to impose strict sanctions on North Korea because of the country’s nuclear test, Bush administration officials allowed Ethiopia to complete a secret arms purchase from the North, in what appears to be a violation of the restrictions, according to senior American officials.

The United States allowed the arms delivery to go through in January in part because Ethiopia was in the midst of a military offensive against Islamic militias inside Somalia, a campaign that aided the American policy of combating religious extremists in the Horn of Africa.

American officials said that they were still encouraging Ethiopia to wean itself from its longstanding reliance on North Korea for cheap Soviet-era military equipment to supply its armed forces and that Ethiopian officials appeared receptive. But the arms deal is an example of the compromises that result from the clash of two foreign policy absolutes: the Bush administration’s commitment to fighting Islamic radicalism and its effort to starve the North Korean government of money it could use to build up its nuclear weapons program.

Since the Sept. 11 attacks, as the administration has made counterterrorism its top foreign policy concern, the White House has sometimes shown a willingness to tolerate misconduct by allies that it might otherwise criticize, like human rights violations in Central Asia and antidemocratic crackdowns in a number of Arab nations.

It is also not the first time that the Bush administration has made an exception for allies in their dealings with North Korea.

How can the Bush administration expect any nation, including the sanctioned party, to observe and comply with international UN sanctions if itself does not do so? What's worse is this is a case in which they help one 'enemy' fight the other 'enemy'.
This is bad precedent.

All this done in the name of fighting a war that is basically political (the "war on terrorism"). There is no proof that North Korea's weapons sold to Ethiopia for its fight against the Islamic extremists in Somalia will even help fight terrorism, it might just make it worse or perhaps it had no effect. Or maybe North Korea's weapons sales have helped Ethiopia's fight, but what damage has it done to the insofar followed sanctions on N Korea? Isn't it proof for the despotic regime that there will always be ways around international restrictions?

This is nothing compared to what Pelosi did: visit a country the Bush administration does not like, although they aren't sanctioned internationally, they are no North Korea, and other members of Congress did the same thing as Speaker Pelosi. This incident is much worse and will certainly not help diplomatic relations between any countries.

This latest hypocritical action made by an administration whose head seems to have a Manichean paranoia of sorts is one that should receive more attention. Bush and domestic politics asice, any government that makes these kinds of actions is not exercising the right policy decisions. I don't care if Barak Obama was president, these kinds of actions are far from acceptable, indeed so considering the circumstances.

Help an authoritarians regime with a history of taking military action in the turmoil-ridden Somalia against groups using tactics that might (see the fire paradox) increase public support and power of such groups. Extremists love a way to get the public and others to convert to their cause, and an occupier and perceived enemy is a perfect 'enemy' to do just that. We've seem the same happen in Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

The administration already showed the world what it thought of the United Nations, and international community as a whole, with other unilateral (or nearly unilateral) moves in the 'war on terror'.

Want a surprise? Our [least] favorite former ambassador had some good things to say...

John R. Bolton, who helped to push the resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea through the Security Council in October, before stepping down as United Nations ambassador, said that the Ethiopians had long known that Washington was concerned about their arms purchases from North Korea and that the Bush administration should not have tolerated the January shipment.

But, naturally, put the blame all on the State Department. (Bolton was one of the necons, like Rumsfeld, who despised State — not least its diplomacy.)

It is not State caving in to N Korea and Ethiopia, its the administration at its core. It seems it will do anything to fight the undefined 'terrorist' and Islamic extremist enemy. Proof that many tactics are unlawful or counterintuitive won't hinder the 'war on terror'.

Restrictions against a country with proven nukes/nuclear program versus unproven fight against terrorism. Hmm...

The experts have already agreed: North Korea is a huge threat. Who knows whether Ethiopia's fight against extremists in Somalia helps or hurts the broader, true front against terrorism, but considering the Ethiopia-Somalia history and the counterterror precedent, it probably just helps the terrorists, and the North Koreans.

technorati tags: north+korea, ethiopia, war+on+terrorism, bush, somalia, foreign+policy, diplomacy, united+states, korea+nuke+sanctions, bush+ethiopia+somalia

Conflict Meter

It has been over a month since the last Conflict Meter report on 31 December 2006. Let's see what turmoil is going on now and what strife is in the conflict forecast...

Somalia

Current: moderate (political, other)

Trend: downward

Forecast: questionable, instable, insurgent (warlord and Islamist; Ethopia was factor); stable government and international support needed (AU and UN, as well as US)

Iraq

Current: very, very high (sectarian and otherwise — terrorist; Iran (v. US), Syria (?) — targeted at practically anyone (depending))

Trend: up

Forecast: down a bit, assuming Baghdad security increases from Iraq govt. and US troop operations though don't get too optimistic; still very bad

Afghanistan

Current: high (Taleban resurgence against govt., troops)

Trend: flat, a bit elevated

Forecast: popular opinion worsening, Taleban might look like heroes compared to other forces

Palestine*

Current: violence was worse — tense calm at the moment; moderate political within (ceasefire in place); heightened with Israel

Trend: lowering within Palestine because of ceasefire and lessening power struggle (?); Israel relations worsening from recent suicide attack

Forecast: could get better or worse between Hamas and Fatah; more impending problems with Israel unless they choose better — altruistic even — policy... Israel should not make the many suffer for the actions of the few, and Arab militants should not let their fellow countrypeople and Muslims, and innocents, suffer for their violent actions


Overall trend of conflict from beginning of Jan 2007 to beginning of Feb 2007:
Up some
(Red up: up greatly; green up: up some. Red down: down greatly from high level; green down: down some from low level.)


*=Within Palestine (Hamas v. Fatah): possibly down because of ceasefire, though it was elevated; Palestine and Israel violence: up; hopefully no further Israeli extra-border action will be taken.


Did I miss any current violent conflicts? Let me know by commenting or emailing me.

technorati tags: conflict+meter, violence, conflicts, war, iraq, somalia, afghanistan, palestine, israel, in+the+news, current, analysis

Today's news in brief

What Washington is talking about this past week... [Slate]
A summary:
1. Iraq just gets worse, more buzz on Saddam Hussein execution;
2. Democrat's take charge;
3. The race for 2008 (Romney, Obama, etc. ambitions);
4. Diplomacy (Negroponte switching government positions);
5. Religion "defile at will" (Ellison swearing in with Koran; GITMO insight by FBI);
6. Republicans (Giuliani political stratigy leak);
7. President Ford's death, "Federal workers spend the day dreaming about how they, too, could someday become president without being elected."

It's only getting worse in Somalia [Reuters]

Hundreds of Somali government soldiers, some in pick-up trucks outfitted with heavy weapons, deployed in Mogadishu on Sunday to prevent further unrest after anti-Ethiopian protests rocked the capital, residents said.

I feel bad for Somalis, and the fact that maybe we in the West could have done more to help before this all got out of hand.

US v. US [San Francisco Chronicle]

Conflict in Iraq
Showdown in Washington
A change of course: Pelosi and new Democratic Congress may face crucial test over Iraq

President Bush and the new Congress are on a collision course over Iraq that could overshadow the Democrats' "100-hour agenda'' and end up defining Rep. Nancy Pelosi's tenure as House speaker.

Even as the House takes steps this week to raise the minimum wage, expand stem cell research, strengthen homeland security and lower prescription drug prices -- an ambitious lineup -- much of the nation's focus will be on Bush, who is expected to deliver a major address to outline the future of American involvement in Iraq.

If the president, as expected, announces his intention to deploy as many as 20,000 additional U.S. troops in Iraq, he may encounter widespread political and public defiance.

It will quickly test the new Democratic majority's capacity to stand up to the commander in chief in a time of war, and the ability of the legislative branch to seize control of the White House's controversial foreign policy.

"This war needs to come to an end. It is my highest priority as speaker,'' Pelosi said Friday after less than 24 hours on the job. "The president is going to have to step back. Up until now, his judgment has been severely impaired on this war in Iraq.''

McCain's urge to surge (in Iraq) [Slate]

Will the troop hike damage his presidential campaign?
It's John McCain's war now. Next week, President Bush will announce a troop surge of between 20,000 and 40,000 troops, according to those who have been briefed on outlines of the plan. Though the president will give the speech, McCain is the politician whose career most depends on it. The senator has been advocating more troops since August of 2003. Recently he has advocated for a surge in private conversations with the president and at greater length with National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, who is heading up the administration's policy review.

In the debate that will follow the president's announcement, McCain will blanket the news outlets making the case for the troop hike.

Sunday, bloody Sunday... in Iraq... again [CBS News]

The U.S. military announced the deaths of five more U.S. troops on another bloody Sunday in Iraq.

Three U.S. airmen and two soldiers were killed, the U.S. military said Sunday.

The sectarian attacks continued despite the major drive to tame Baghdad. The Iraqi army reported killing 30 militants late Saturday in a Sunni insurgent stronghold in the center of the city, just to the north of the heavily fortified Green Zone.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, speaking only hours earlier at a ceremony marking the 85th anniversary of the Iraqi army, announced his intention for the relentless and open-ended bid to crush militant fighters bedeviling Baghdad.

Hassan al-Suneid, a key aid and member of al-Maliki's Dawa Party, said the Iraqi leader had committed 20,000 soldiers to the operation that would call upon American troops and airpower only when needed.

Two of Saddam Hussein's top aides — Barzan Ibrahim, Saddam's half-brother and former intelligence chief, and Awad Hamed al-Bandar, former head of Iraq's Revolutionary Court — were taken from their cells and told they were going to be executed on the same day as the former Iraqi dictator and told to write out their wills, their lawyer, Issam Ghazawi, said Sunday. But the two were returned to their cells, and are being held in U.S. custody at an unspecified location in Baghdad. Although al-Bandar told Ghazawi that he "wished to have been executed with President Saddam," the lawyer is seeking to have their execution commuted because of "the psychological pain they endured as they waited to hang."

U.K. treasury chief Gordon Brown, who is expected to succeed Tony Blair as prime minister this year, said on Saturday that the taunting of Saddam during his execution and the release of illicitly recorded video was "deplorable" and "completely unacceptable." Blair planned to speak publicly about the hanging later this week, but believed that process had been poorly handled, his office said.

Hamas' militia pronounced as illegal by Palestinian president
[Bloomberg]

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas yesterday declared a militia belonging to the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry illegal after its gunmen killed a security official and four others.

Will Bush's veto be provoked by new Democraticly-led Congress? [Yahoo! News/AP]

President George W. Bush has vetoed just one bill in nearly six years in office. That soon may change. As newly empowered Democrats forge ahead with their own agenda, some items may make it to his desk as prime candidates for veto.

One might be a recycled version of the stem-cell funding bill that drew Mr. Bush's lone veto last July. Other possibilities include measures that would raise the minimum wage without offsetting tax breaks for businesses, fully put in place the Sept. 11 commission's recommendations and curb oil-industry subsidies.

The Democratic takeover of Congress and the planned 100-hour burst of legislation sent parliamentary experts in both the administration and Congress scurrying to dust off the manual on vetoes and to brace for a possible onslaught.

In the new Congress, just days old, promises of bipartisanship still fill the air. Such pledges, however, may be put to the test in no time.

technorati tags: pelosi, mccain, iraq, news, in+the+news, current+affairs, congress, democrats, 110th+congress, somalia, nancy+pelosi, george+w+bush, bush, united+states, politics, hamas, palestine, abbas, slate, washington

The dynamic Somalia situation; facts from the news this year

Somalia has become a hot topic yet again. The African nation located close to the Arab lands has been in strife for ages, coming out of civil war(s) and getting into new ones. Most of the areas of Somalia were and are ruled [largely] by warlords, supported — indirectly or otherwise — by the United States. There is also the recently more powerful element of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) — charged by the US as 'terrorists'. Nonetheless, the fighting between the long-powerful tribal warlords (clan militias) and the Islamist fighters has left many Somalians in ruins, and refugees have been pouring out for a long time. Most Somalians do not strongly support either side. Now, the UIC — which had taken the capital Mogadishu but strangely gave it back earlier today — is now facing off with Somali neighbour Ethiopia, or so it seems.

More events are springing up in the East African nation.

Government troops in Somalia have marched into parts of Mogadishu, hours after Islamist forces abandoned the capital they had held for six months.

Ethiopia is much stronger in all aspects when compared to Somalia. The interim Somali government set up by the international community a little while ago is a joke and makes the even Iraqi government look strong to a degree. Ethopia, which only recently acknowledged its military presence in its neighbour's territory, backs the Somali 'government'.
Delving into the situation, one also sees more "war on terror" fronts, as if there weren't enough already.

For the past sixteen years, Somalia has been widely acknowledged—and ignored—as a failed state. Now, as a regional war appears imminent, the world is finally paying attention to the Horn of Africa. Somalia is a “feral nation,” (LAT) writes former CIA Case Officer Garrett Jones; the “hot new front in the war on terrorism,” according to the Washington Post. Observers warn the battle between Somalia’s Islamic Courts and Ethiopian troops threatens to pull in neighboring countries and Muslim extremists. Ethiopia’s superior military, which enjoys the tacit support of Washington, has forced the Islamists to withdraw from their front line positions, but analysts are concerned about the ensuing power vacuum (CSMonitor). Some anticipate these radicals will reemerge and wage guerrilla war (LAT), not unlike what the United States faces in Iraq.

If anyone wants something to browse, check out this "100 things we didn't know last year" list from the BBC. Some highlights:

2. There are 200 million blogs which are no longer being updated, say technology analysts.
23. More than one in eight people in the United States show signs of addiction to the internet, says a study.
57. The word "time" is the most common noun in the English language, according to the latest Oxford dictionary.
68. The egg came first.
73. George Bush's personal highlight of his presidency is catching a 7.5lb (3.4kg) perch.
81. Iceland has the highest concentration of broadband users in the world.
86. Six million people use TV subtitles, despite having no hearing impairment.
100. In the 1960s, the CIA used to watch Mission Impossible to get ideas about spying.

Number 2 does not apply to this blog. Numbers 23 and 86 both apply to me. Number 73 explains a lot. Number 100 does not surprise me, given how the CIA operated back then (and — to a certain extent — now).


Sorry about the lack of posting lately; vacation and relaxation have made me a bit lazy. I have been reading a plethora of books and magazines, and have some fresh ideas to blog as this new year is upon us in three or so days.

UPDATE: For a nice overview of the situation in Somalia, see this episode of The Show with Ze Frank.

technorati tags: somalia, bbc, UIC, islam, ethiopia, africa, horn+of+africa, arab, terrorism, war+on+terror, bbc, trivia, facts, CIA, united+states, politics, mogadishu, news, current+affairs, in+the+news, international, list, war