Russia's continued icy relations

Russia breaks the ice with Canada... by annoying it
What does the latest update in the chilling relations between Russia and others (e.g. America, Britain, Georgia, Estonia, and now Canada) mean in the long term? As usual, the implications may be as murky as the waters of which Russia seeks control in the Arctic [see post].

Tit for tat
Russia is trying to show the world that, along with its new-found energy wealth, it has bigger muscles it can flex. Many recent Russian moves of rebellion are meant to distance itself from others and show it is strong enough on its own, or so the theory goes. The former Soviet nation has produced a few surprises, such as (apparently) calling Bush's bluff on the missile shields and proving more a bully than ever with its natural gas.

America and Russia don't look like they are in 'Cold War' mode (I agree with Condi Rice) — as some alarmists have speculated — but the rhetoric is clear: the White House thinks Russia is becoming a bullying autocracy; Russia views the United States as an overreaching imperial superpower. Both can learn from their own talking points.

The most powerful voice in the anti-Russia camp presiding in the Bush administration is none other than that of Vice President Cheney, who has traded jabs with Putin (sometimes similar personalities clash, I guess). Considering his the formidable power he welds in the executive, Cheney might convince Bush to toughen up. Whether that is happening remains to be seen.

We do know that Russia's antics over the past few years — cutting of gas and launching cyberwars against nations, killing and intimidating state opponents, rebelling against the West — do not look like they will stop anytime soon. Depending on the conditions, things may change with some diplomacy, direct or stealth.

The big freeze?
Just because Moscow has called the icy Arctic theirs doesn't mean relations will stay cold. They may turn frozen, or perhaps the thaw will come. Russia views itself as a new world player. It will take tact by western states to balance this new perceived world power seesaw, no matter how politically superficial it seems.

Russia might fear containment; both sides fear the other's overreach. A new article by the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov intended for publication in Foreign Affairs (no, it wasn't censored) tackles this issue.

Cooperation or mutual stubbornness is what it comes down to, but it takes two to tango. Both Russia and America, et al, impact their mutual relations. Both will have to fix them or face more diplomatic tension.

The red submarine: Russia's Arctic assertion

Moscow's icy declaration red-flagged
Russia has staked claim to the North Pole. With the blessing of the increasingly authoritarian government, a small Russian submarine operating for scientific purposes left a Russian flag under the pole. It is believed that the Arctic seabed holds vast natural energy resources. Recently Canada has also brought up Arctic land rights. All-out Russia v. Canada? I doubt it. More saber rattling between Russia and the West? Probably. Whether the Litvanyenko murder case, anti-missile shield plans, or the matter of who has owns the icy depths, and the energy-rich land on the bottom.

This comes at a time when the law of the sea, as well as other geographical rights, is under debate in the international community. Control of supposed international areas and outer space is a hot geopolitical topic that will result in many voices clamoring for their fair share in the goods.

However territorial claim to the far north is a settled issue, says Canada, with a claim of its own in the Arctic. I guess this falls under law of the seabed?

AFP:

Canada's top diplomat ridiculed Russia's flag-planting at the North Pole on Thursday as a "15th century" stunt that does not bolster its disputed claim to the resource-rich Arctic.
"Look, this isn't the 15th century. You can't go around the world and plant flags and say, 'We're claiming this territory,'" Foreign Minister Peter MacKay told broadcaster CTV.
Earlier, according to reports, a Russian mini-submarine reached the bottom of the Arctic Ocean under the North Pole at a depth of 4,261 metres (13,980 feet), to carry out scientific tests and leave a Russian flag.
The dive is believed to be the first of its kind and is part of a voyage that started on July 24. It aims to advance Russian claims to a vast swathe of Arctic seabed thought to be rich in oil and gas.
"Our claims over our Arctic are very well-established," MacKay commented.
"There is no threat to Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic and as you know, we've made very strong commitments, the prime minister has been there recently, may be there again (soon), so we're not at all concerned about this (stunt).
"It's basically just a show by Russia," he said.
A spokesman for Canada's foreign affairs department added: "Canada's sovereignty over the lands and waters of the Canadian Arctic is longstanding, well established and based on historic title."

The race is on for polar control
BBC News:

President Vladimir Putin has already described the urgent need for Russia to secure its "strategic, economic, scientific and defence interests" in the Arctic.

Moscow argued before a UN commission in 2001 that waters off its northern coast were in fact an extension of its maritime territory.

The claim was based on the argument that an underwater feature, known as the Lomonosov Ridge, was an extension of its continental territory, but it was rejected and Russia told to resubmit with more evidence.
Several countries with territories bordering the Arctic - including Russia, the US, Canada and Denmark - have launched competing claims to the region.
...
The North Pole is not currently regarded as part of any single country's territory and is therefore administered by the International Seabed Authority.

With the rise in global temperatures and thus the melting of polar ice-caps, competition has increased for nations seeking claim to the Arctic Circle.

Surprise G8 compromise

At last G8 leaders have reached an agreement on climate change. Only the US had differing views from the other powers on global warming.

According to an extract from the agreed text published on the G8 website, the leaders agreed to take "strong and early" action.

"Taking into account the scientific knowledge as represented in the recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] reports, global greenhouse gas emissions must stop rising, followed by substantial global emission reductions," the text says.

The American view seemed to switch between "Human-caused global warming isn't happening" and "Oh, that global warming — we don't want to do anything about it". The latter view was recently held by President Bush in his usual policy format of baseless rhetoric.

The disagreement over how to take action against climate change has been an issue since America fought the proposed climate change initiatives earlier last month. In addition to the usual issues, the strained relations between Russia and the West — including the US's hope for missile defense shields in Europe, and Russia's retaliation to such an idea — is also going to be a major factor at the G8 summit.

The Group of Eight developed nations, or G8, includes Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan. The summit in its 33rd year is hosted this year by Germany and lasts from 6 June to 8 June. It is one of the major yearly world meetings. This will be the last summit for Britain's Tony Blair (leaving office on 27 June) and Russia's Vladimir Putin. It is the first for newcomers Shinzo Abe of Japan and Nicolas Sarkozy of France. Angela Merkel, the leader of Germany, plays host and tries to mediate hot issues like global warming; Prodi of Italy tries to please his fellow G8 members while keeping his fragile center-left coalition together; George W. Bush isn't well liked and along with Tony Blair will throw light jabs at the provocative Putin. The EU is also represented there. See also the G8 website.

technorati tags: bush, climate+change, global+warming, g8, united+states, politics, international+relations, diplomacy, foreign+affairs,

Good day for Canadian civil liberties

If only with the United States Supreme Court could be this rational...
BBC News:

Canada's Supreme Court has struck down a controversial system that allowed the government to detain and deport foreign-born terror suspects.
The nine judges ruled that the security certificate system - in place since 1978 - violated Canada's Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

The system allowed a suspect to be held indefinitely or deported on the basis of evidence presented in secret.

Though it took long enough for the courts to catch up and attack this highly questionable system. Nonetheless, the system sounds a lot like America's legal FISA courts, which award secret warrants, but are a bit more broad in regards to evidence. The Bush administration, and some administrations prior, have ignored FISA and even the courts and the US Constitution. To be honest this is the first time I have heard of Canada's Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

Overall: a good day for civil liberties [edit: including in Guinea]. Well, except for the whole continued repression of free speech in Egypt issue...

technorati tags: canada, civil+liberties, news, courts, justice, politics, united+states