Parisian protests finally cool down

Violence has died down after several days of violent protest in France. How did it all begin?

...two teenagers, riding a mini-motorbike without crash helmets, were killed in a collision with a police car on November 25th. How it happened is unclear; a judicial inquiry has begun. But by nightfall, rioters were on the rampage. Over two nights of violence, they torched scores of cars and rubbish bins, a police station, a nursery school, a library, shops, a car dealer and a McDonald's. Other banlieues north of Paris and in Toulouse saw car-burnings. Some 130 policemen were wounded, several seriously.

These latest French riots, reminiscent of the ones two years ago, bring up an important sociological question: Why do riots like this happen more in France than other places? France certainly is not the only developed nation with discontented poor and minority groups. France is a nation of protests and strikes. Recent example: the transport strike.

Why don't these stands against authority (more the recent riots than the strike) happen to this extent in America or Britain, cultural differences aside? A partial answer — and only a partial answer — is that while the US and UK embrace a multicultural society, the French prefer a more homogenized culture. That does not answer the full question, but rather the underlying issues that provoked the flair-up between people and police. I guess more subtle differences explain why the French protest so much.

The lack of organized protest to the Iraq war (as compared to, say, the anti-Vietnam war protests in America) is interesting. Civil protests are a good thing for democracies. They can relieve pent-up tensions, they let opinions be aired, showcase public opinion, and generally help get out the word of the people. But too much protesting can get out of hand, as can violent demonstrations like the ones so often seen in poor French suburbs.

President Sarkozy took a different, if less tactful, route to describing the clashes than most. He

risked inflaming tensions in Parisian suburbs by declaring violence this week was the result of a "thugocracy" of criminals, not social deprivation.

Two years ago, then-Interior Minister Sarkozy was borderline-racist in his handling of the riots and subsequent comments. I don't know if he is handling these too much better as president, but at least the security response was adequate.

Competition troubles at the EU summit

One of the things holding Europe back from reaping more financial successes are the restrictive anti-competition laws and practices. Outside firm A is proposing to buy European firm B, the courts or government step in, deal falls through. Though necessary at times — such as to prevent monopolies and safeguard finances — meddling protectionist measures like these muck up the free market. We are seeing this time and time again, especially as more foreign funds attempt to buy up both successful and failing European firms.

Another issue, is bankruptcy laws in Europe. In America more liberal business bankruptcy laws have allowed new start-up firms like, say, Google and Digg to flourish in the tech entrepreneurial hotbed of Silicon Valley. Perhaps the reason Europe does not have a Silicon Valley of its own is because of its less friendly, more restrictive bankruptcy laws. The lack of new start-ups and fresh ideas indeed feeds into the lack of competition. And competition is a fuel the market economy needs.

This is related to the European Union summit going on right now in that competition and the free markets has been a major issue. Which leads us to Nicolas Sarkozy, president of France, who received the backing of The Economist because of his reformist economical stance. The free marketers' candidate appears to have reservations about, well, free markets at this EU summit.

HAS Nicolas Sarkozy really dealt a nasty blow to the free-market foundations of Europe? The question has caused much confusion at a European Union summit unfolding in Brussels. It emerged on Thursday June 21st that France’s new president had succeeded in removing “free and undistorted competition” from a list of the EU’s core objectives at the top of a new “reform treaty” being thrashed to replace the defunct constitution.
...
During his campaign to become president he presented rival public faces: the pro-business reformer alongside the populist defender of French national interests. The elections won, it is still not clear which of these is the true Mr Sarkozy.

The EU treaty is at the top of this summit's agenda, and is why it is receiving so much attention. Whenever most countries agree, there seems to always be one or two that have their own (selfish) reservations. And yes, for the sake of sovereignty and answering to the voting public, it is important for a country to stand up for what's best for it, but some cases aren't as clear. Sometimes diplomats and leaders should ask themselves, 'Is it worth it to fight for this when there are so many other things I may need to stand up for my country?'

There is, however, good news. Apparently Sarkozy has been convinced to let some things go in his one-man battle against the competition law in the EU treaty. Sarkozy may have gotten "free and undistorted competition" taken out from the treaty's preamble, but

sources in Brussels say a legally binding protocol will be added that protects existing competition law.

So all this fuss over just a superficial word change?

With Mr Sarkozy's change also remaining in place, he will be able to tell the French voters he has defended French jobs.
...
French President Nicolas Sarkozy has already said that there are 13 references to free market competition in existing EU treaties, so the EU's powers over competition would not be changed.

Leaders of the 27 EU states are meeting in Brussels to agree the main parameters for a new EU treaty.

A future conference would then decide the final text.

The treaty is designed to replace the planned European Constitution, which was rejected by both French and Dutch voters two years ago.

France's economy is far too bogged down by regulation and government intervention. The public sector often makes the private sector look tiny. Contrary to the wishes of the old left, such a gigantic public sector isn't good for the workers either: notice how there always seems to be a giant worker's protest going on in France? Even though its government-run health system is arguably better than the United States' — and it's free — French doctors get paid one-third of what their American counterparts take home. The government cannot afford much more. While I am in favor of state-run national health services in many cases, France needs to open up and privatize many areas of its economy.

Next bump in the path to a new EU treaty: Poland doesn't want Germany to have too much power. I can sympathize to an extent, since Poland is still being bullied (e.g. energy wise) by Germany and Russia, but playing war card isn't an acceptable move. The trouble is over a voting system of the EU; Poland wants more votes to compensate for lives lost in the Second World War. This Poland versus Germany battle looks to continue, as the United Kingdom throws it's hat into the ring too — questionably at that.

In addition,

draft treaty submitted for debate at the summit makes several concessions to EU member states that had opposed key parts of the planned constitution.

Proposed changes include:

* Removing any mention of the word "constitution"
* Providing countries with a chance to opt out of EU policies in the area of policing and criminal law
* New voting system to approve decisions
* Full-time president of European Council instead of current system where members take six-month turns
* New foreign affairs head and a smaller commission

Correspondents say failure to reach a deal on the treaty would plunge the EU into a fresh crisis as deep as the one that followed the rejection of the constitution two years ago.
...
A draft treaty submitted for debate at the summit makes several concessions to EU member states that had opposed key parts of the planned constitution.

Proposed changes include:

* Removing any mention of the word "constitution"
* Providing countries with a chance to opt out of EU policies in the area of policing and criminal law
* New voting system to approve decisions
* Full-time president of European Council instead of current system where members take six-month turns
* New foreign affairs head and a smaller commission

Correspondents say failure to reach a deal on the treaty would plunge the EU into a fresh crisis as deep as the one that followed the rejection of the constitution two years ago.

Britain has also been the target of some complaint. It has backed out of various areas, seeking special treatment, and the negotiating "has been shambolic, according to one insider", says BBC's Europe editor Mark Mardell.

The summit, at two days long, will end today and the future of the EU and the constitution, or whatever they aim to call it, is at stake. Many quarrels deal with political language, and some are bringing up issues of long ago to their advantage.
To see some countries' stances and what they will attempt to exempt themselves from, and more, see here. The agreement of 27 diverse nations — with political rifts between many of them — is a tough goal. However, the European Union treaty must be tackled before people loose yet more hope.

Sarkozy's UMP a winner in France

So ends France's series of 2007 elections...
France's new president, Nicolas Sarkozy, had a modest win in the French polls over the weekend.

His conservative UMP party won the most seats in France's parliament, but did not live up to the high expectations placed upon it for this election. Europe seems to be continuing its turn to the moderate right, just as South and Latin America see a more populist left transformation.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP party says it will press ahead with wide-ranging reforms, after winning a majority in parliamentary elections.

Although the centre-right UMP failed to secure a predicted landslide, it said it had a mandate to implement change.

Its plans include tighter immigration laws, tax cuts and longer jail terms.

Since it is a pain to write out all the election numbers, here is what the seat composition of the French National Assembly looks like by party (source: BBC News):


Crunching the numbers
So the Socialists gained seats, going from 141 in 2002 to 185 in this past election. Its chief rival and the only party with more seats is the center-right UMP, which had a weakened majority compared to in 2002: UMP lost 43 seats. By my tally there are 577 total seats in the parliament, and approximately 349 belong to right-leaning parties, 226 to left-leaning ones, and 2 others to spare. The two biggest parties, UMP and the Socialists, have 499 seats combined. UMP has a 54.42% majority overall.

Royal couple split
On another note, Sarkozy's former Socialist challenger in the presidential election election earlier this year, Segolene Royal, has revealed she is splitting with the Socialist party leader Francois Hollande for personal reasons. They were partners for 25 years and have four children. Royal also announced she is running for the position of party chair, which Hollande currently occupies. Oddly enough, this further development of the rift on the left side of French politics ousted Sarkozy's election win from the top news story. Kind of like how the announcement of Apple's iPhone (ooh, shiny and cool!) overshadowed Bush's much-awaited Iraq troop "surge" speech?

Sarko hearts 'reform'
Hopefully Sarkozy will reform France's restricted economy. The public sector is far too large; government intervention makes growth hard; and the economy needs to be liberalized overall. The cabinet might now be shuffled and additional aspects of the new government ironed out.

As expected Sarkozy aligned himself with US President Bush at the G8 summit earlier this year — to an extent. He also worked with his fellow world leaders to push Bush into a wall on climate change, resulting in at least a half-hearted attempt at jabbing the issue. Apparently the French leader was also caught drunk at the G8.

Surprise G8 compromise

At last G8 leaders have reached an agreement on climate change. Only the US had differing views from the other powers on global warming.

According to an extract from the agreed text published on the G8 website, the leaders agreed to take "strong and early" action.

"Taking into account the scientific knowledge as represented in the recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] reports, global greenhouse gas emissions must stop rising, followed by substantial global emission reductions," the text says.

The American view seemed to switch between "Human-caused global warming isn't happening" and "Oh, that global warming — we don't want to do anything about it". The latter view was recently held by President Bush in his usual policy format of baseless rhetoric.

The disagreement over how to take action against climate change has been an issue since America fought the proposed climate change initiatives earlier last month. In addition to the usual issues, the strained relations between Russia and the West — including the US's hope for missile defense shields in Europe, and Russia's retaliation to such an idea — is also going to be a major factor at the G8 summit.

The Group of Eight developed nations, or G8, includes Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, France, Germany, and Japan. The summit in its 33rd year is hosted this year by Germany and lasts from 6 June to 8 June. It is one of the major yearly world meetings. This will be the last summit for Britain's Tony Blair (leaving office on 27 June) and Russia's Vladimir Putin. It is the first for newcomers Shinzo Abe of Japan and Nicolas Sarkozy of France. Angela Merkel, the leader of Germany, plays host and tries to mediate hot issues like global warming; Prodi of Italy tries to please his fellow G8 members while keeping his fragile center-left coalition together; George W. Bush isn't well liked and along with Tony Blair will throw light jabs at the provocative Putin. The EU is also represented there. See also the G8 website.

technorati tags: bush, climate+change, global+warming, g8, united+states, politics, international+relations, diplomacy, foreign+affairs,

Five more years...

Nicolas Sarkozy has been sworn in as the President of the Fifth Republic of France today. He won the second and final round of the 2007 French election earlier this month. Sarkozy has a number of things on his plate.

What change will he bring? Probably some good change on the economy, questionable change on EU policy (e.g. he doesn't like Turkey); ethnic and immigrant problems will continue, and who knows how France will continue to face the important topic of globalization shaping their cultural, economical, and political spheres.

Sarkozy is an anti-radical, and will have trouble with unions and students, among other groups. Sarkozy should implement (positive) change while he can: parliamentary elections are this summer, and Bayrou's centrist party might create a few surprises. On the other hand, the Socialists are marginalized and dazed.

French politics are in bloom for the spring time. Let's see how Sarkozy handles himself with upcoming G8 and EU meetings. Climate change is an issue I do not know Sarkozy's stance on. Hopefully his views on global warming will be closer to those of his European counterparts as opposed to those of the United States.

As far as the European powers go, Brown is likely to be the next leader of the UK (although Blair will stay until late June, meaning the upcoming G8 summit will be his last), Sarkozy has taken the reins in France, Prodi is holding on in Italy, and Merkel governs Germany.

The ugly side of French democracy

I guess Royal was right in predicting and warning of the ensuing (leftist youth) violence following a Sarkozy win in the French presidential election...


Image credits: Reuters and Robert Pratta (top), Reuters and Gonzalo Fuentes (bottom).

Reuters:

Hundreds of people were arrested in France overnight in clashes between police and protesters angry over conservative Nicolas Sarkozy's victory in Sunday's presidential election, police said.

Official figures released on Monday said demonstrators set fire to 730 cars and injured 78 policemen across France, with 592 people arrested in the violent protests against the tough-talking former interior minister.

The tally was revised sharply upwards after an initial report appeared to downplay the clashes and was at odds with local police figures and eyewitness reports, which suggested widespread troubles in numerous French cities.

The probably all too powerful French unions are also disgruntled by the center-right interior minister's victory in the Sunday polls. He aims for a more global France — which is good — and US President George Bush seems pleased with the success of his French counterpart.

What next for Sarkozy?

Change and reform are arguably the underlying topics of this election, encapsulating everything from governmental reform to economic liberalization to law and order and immigration.

Now that he has seemingly won the election, one must hope Sarkozy does not continue to court the far-right. He must actually reform and drop a fair bit of xenophobia, as well as convince France that the EU is not a political demon. He must tackle crime and poverty at home, and the many troubles — such as those in the Middle East — abroad. He must follow through with his promises of liberalizing the economy and opening up the markets; allowing a private sector to flourish while embracing the global economic phenomenon that many other developed countries have used to much success. He must bring France to the forefront of world powers, allowing his nation its rightful place high on the international stage. He must work with the United Nations. Sarkozy must not become too close to the United States for his political sake, but he must also cut through the anti-American mould so attributed to his country. He must open up the bureaucracy, the economic regulations, and the minds of France to a liberalized, multi-cultural, global nation — a member of the UN Security Council, founding member of the European Union, and one of the G8 nations. At the same time he must keep his political capital in check and act appropriately and ethically, unlike some of his predecessors.

Assuming he has indeed won the election, Sarkozy will enter office when Chirac's term expires on 16 May.

technorati tags: nicolas+sarkozy, french+presidential+election+2007, france+election+2007, president+france, chirac, politics, united+states, global+france, sarkozy+reform, EU

Le prochain président de la France: Nicolas Sarkozy

Nicolas Sarkozy is the winner of France's presidential election, say early results.

Sarkozy has vowed for change. His Socialist challenger, Segolene Royal, has conceded defeat and thanked the 17 million who voted for her.

BBC News:

Mr Sarkozy is estimated to have won 53% of the vote, compared to 47% for socialist Segolene Royal.

The turnout was the highest in decades at 85.5%.
...
Mr Sarkozy has promised to try to reform France to face the challenges of the 21st century, with putting the nation back to work at the top of his agenda.

But the BBC's Caroline Wyatt in Paris says he will have to work hard to unite the French, and try to win round those who voted against him.

More than 3,000 police have been deployed in Paris and its multi-ethnic suburbs in case Mr Sarkozy's victory sparks a repeat of the riots seen in 2005.

technorati tags: nicolas+sarkozy, segolene+royal, france+president+electio+2007

France: voting for change

Sarkozy v. Royal comes to an electoral close in less than two hours...

Some French voters think Sarkozy would do a better job at changing France for the better; some think Royal would. Sarkozy would be more likely to make tough, necessary changes, but his policies are sometimes undesirable and he has been courting the far right in order to ensure a win in this election. Royal, on the other hand, may be too weak and politically inexperienced to enact the change France desperately needs, and she still sticks to her old left foundation — something she, and France, needs to move away from. Job security and market liberalization are two issues at hand, as are immigration and law enforcement. The reform of the government structure in general is also needed. Royal spends too much; Sarkozy invades privacy and uses power too much.

As of now, over 75% of voters have cast their ballots for either Sarkozy or Royal in the second and final round of the French presidential election. This is the highest turnout in decades. The first round also brought out near-record turnout.

Some are pessimistic about whether this election will bring change. No matter who wins, they need to be open to defying protests and what seems like the defiance of the public to reforms for the greater good. Current President Jacques Chirac was too afraid to follow through on his initiatives for change, and many French politicians flinch every time they see protests against the reforms they wish to pass. Whoever wins has the support of the public, and should use that support to actually change whatever needs changing — and many things do. On the other hand, the winner does not want to turn into a dictator by public choice, per se.

This election has been full of controversy and debate, bringing the French seemingly closer to the politics France is known for. However these are politics with a new face: voters, forced once again to choose between left and right, are not following traditional voting labels. One memorable event has been Royal warning that her left-wing supporters could riot if Sarkozy wins, which can either be taken as a political threat or a misunderstood musing. Riot police and extra law enforcement have been sent to Paris to avoid mass riots (remember 2005?) if political tempers flare as the result of a Sarkozy win, especially among the poorer suburb dwellers and immigrants.

In France, the president is a very powerful figure, and one could only hope Sarkozy or Royal will not abuse that power. So will it be the traditional leftist with a new spin, Socialist Segolene Royal, or the center-right (neo-)Gaullist, Nicolas Sarkozy? I’m guessing the latter. Although he has the will power to pass the reforms France needs, he also has a tendency to misuse power. Royal just doesn’t seem cut out to be the leader either.

Nonetheless its not my choice that counts, the votes of the French people will decide who the next leader of France will be, and those votes are important indeed. Bolstering France in the international community will be yet another task for the next president; and globalization is a huge issue at hand, politicially, culturally (immigration), and economically (trade and jobs). For example, both candidates have been bad-talking the EU, an overused scapegoat for poor government policy and an 'evil' Sarkozy or Royal are trying to make voters think they could fight against and protect France. This protectionism will certainly not help France's troubled economy.

Early results will be announced later today, and official results will come on 10 May. Several polls from very late on 4 May put Sarkozy 10 percentage points in front of his challenger.

Centrist Francois Bayrou, who lost the first round, has seen his popularity skyrocket and may yet be able to form a moderate political coalition with his weak UDF party. Go Bayrou!

Wikipedia has an extensive article on the election.

Update:
Early results claim Sarkozy as the winner of this second round vote. Royal has admitted defeat and police are preparing for political unrest in case rioting brakes out as a result of Sarkozy's electoral triumph.

technorati tags: france+election+2007, french+presidental+election, nicolas+sarkozy, segolene+royal, in+the+news, france+reform+politics, globalization

Presidential candidates debate

Interesting debate between Democratic candidates for the 2008 election in South Carolina a few days ago. No clear winner, but the consensus is that Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton did well. Near-unknown Gravel and a-bit-more-known Kucinich both represented a more left-wing viewpoint, but less popular, fringe of the party. There was ample Bush bashing and an array of Iraq war criticism.

France’s Royal and Sarkozy (see Sarkozy v. Royal) also dished out fighting words in their presidential debate. This Sunday, the second and final round of the election will take place, and France will choose either Sarkozy or Royal as president. Far-right Le Pen, who was defeated in the first round, urged his voters to abstain from voting in the upcoming polls, which will help the Royal team and hurt center-right Sarkozy.

technorati tags: mike+gravel, dennis+kucinish, hillary+clinton, segolene+royal, nicolas+sarkozy, french+presidential+election+2007, democrats+debate+south+carolina, 2008+US+presidential+election

Sarkozy v. Royal: the final chapter begins

Some new updates on the presidential election in France...

Although votes in this close election, which has enjoyed high turnout, are still being tallied, it looks as if there will indeed be a left-right battle in the second round of the French presidential election.

Centre-right Nicolas Sarkozy will meet Socialist Segolene Royal in the run-off of France's presidential election on 6 May, according to initial results.

Mr Sarkozy, a former interior minister, came first with 30%, ahead of Ms Royal, who is bidding to be France's first woman president, on about 25%.

Centrist Francois Bayrou got 18%, and far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen 11%.

Voting throughout the day reached record numbers, with turnout put at 85% - the highest for nearly 50 years.

On a bright spring day, disillusionment with politicians and their promises did not translate into apathy, reports the BBC's Caroline Wyatt in Paris.

For such a close election, these results look almost identical to what the candidates were polling in the days leading up to today's vote.

Campaigning will restart on 27 April, with the second round of voting on 6 May and the final results coming four days later. One should prepare for an intense campaign as left meets right in the nation that came up with the political identifications of "left" and "right" — a country that shows that history in its oft-partisan politics.

Royal, according to the aforementioned preliminary results, polled higher than previous opinion polls had speculated, in part because of the old-fashioned manner polling is done and the fact Royal has many young supporters.

It is very good that turnout was so high, as a politically apathetic France would hardly be the France we know. In a democracy the people must take action and that's what we've seen — for better or for worse — today in France. And even though centrist, left-right bridging Bayrou did not make it to the second round, his decent support has shown a politician in the middle can make it somewhere. Maybe someday that gap between left and right will be bridged for the Fifth Republic, whether by Bayrou or by someone else. It would have been interesting if Bayrou could have made it to the run-off. He was polling higher than Sarkozy in head-to-head polls before the election.

More worrying, however, is the support for extreme rightist Le Pen: one in 10 voted for him. At least this time he didn't make it to the second round, though. The fact Le Pen still enjoyed such support only illustrated further the political repair France is in dire need of.

Now: I am still torn between the gaffe-prone, old left-styled Royal and the xenophobic, right-wing-courting, 'mini-Bush' Sarkozy.

Update:
It's official...

FIRST ROUND RESULTS
Nicolas Sarkozy - 30.78%
Segolene Royal - 25.32%
Francois Bayrou - 18.47%
Jean-Marie Le Pen - 10.89%
Source: French Interior Ministry at 2100 GMT

technorati tags: france+presidential+election+2007, nicolas+sarkozy, bayrou, sarkozy, segolene+royal, royal, election+france, president+france, french+politics, news, voting, le pen, polls

La France vote 2007: haute assemblée dans la première étape de l'élection présidentielle

Or: France votes 2007: high turnout in first stage of presidential election

The French election is still unpredictable.

BBC News covers the news well...

French voters have been streaming to the polls to cast their ballot in a presidential election seen as the nation's most unpredictable in decades.

With three hours to go, nearly 74% had already voted, exceeding the total turnout for the last elections in 2002.

Twelve hopefuls are seeking a spot in the second-round run-off on 6 May.

The leading candidates are centre-right Nicolas Sarkozy, socialist Segolene Royal, centrist Francois Bayrou and far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen.

At 1500 GMT, turnout stood at 73.87%, according to the interior ministry, the highest rate in a first round since at least 1981.

Correspondents say many French voters approached the election in a mood of mingled fear and hope, believing France needs change after 12 years under President Jacques Chirac but unsure which direction to opt for.
...
There are more than one million newly registered voters, the biggest increase in 25 years.

RESULTS COUNTDOWN
1600 GMT - 22 April: Polls begin to close
1800 GMT - 22 April: Early exit polls
1800 GMT - 25 April: Official results
27 April: Campaigning restarts
6 May: Second round poll
10 May: Final official results

Whoever wins, says the BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus, it will mark a change of political generation and perhaps a shift in French international priorities, making this election matter even to those outside France.

BBC News has an interesting feature, now common for many major news stories, showing the views of an array of 'ordinary' people on the issue at hand.

I'd say my views are most on par with Muriel Calvez, who states:

Sadly, I feel that my vote will probably be more of a vote against a candidate - or several candidates - rather than a vote in favour of anyone.
...
The problem with the rest of the candidates is that they represent extremes - either the extreme left or the extreme right.

I consider myself more of a centre-left voter, but I cannot find any candidate that truly represents my views.

I feel like there is a lot of choice - but also no choice at all.

She said she will most likely vote for Segolene Royal or Francois Bayrou.

Hazem Eseifan also makes some strong points on the two candidates he is torn between: Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Bayrou.

I will watch both candidates closely between now and election day. I would like to see Sarkozy softening up a bit and for Bayrou to sharpen up.

See also a LRB article on the elections and, a NYT article on how the poverty of immigrants and the troublesome suburbs will play such a large role in the elections.

Sarkozy is disliked by the immigrants; liked by the tough 'law and order' types and xenophobes. He is trying to shift to the right to court some of Le Pen's lighter supporters. Royal's political weaknesses, along with Sarkozy's right-tilt, have empowered centrist Bayrou.

Even for non-voting, third parties such as myself it is a hard choice. Sarkozy will no doubt reform the reform-needy French system, but are some of policies too hard? Royal is ambitious and, at first glance, seems like a model modern liberal, but she is really just aligned with the policies of the Old Left — not in sync with the modern politik (which France ever more needs to be). Bayrou looks decent too, but, like the other two, has interventionist tendencies. He also believes in subsidized farming. France needs to open up and move its economy forward, not remain closed and keep slowing down.

technorati tags: sarkozy, bayrou, royal, france, french+election, france+president+election+2007, politics+de+France

Too close to call: French vote unpredictable

The first round of the French presidential election draws nearer. After today, opinion polls can no longer be published as to not compromise the vote.

Roughly 40% of the French electorate are still unsure of who they’ll vote for. The question is, how many of that 40% will vote?

At this time Sarkozy still has a good lead overall (nearly/about one-third of the vote), with Royal also following in the 20s (%) and Bayrou with not even 20% of the overall vote. Of course, since many are undecided, this election is looking very close, especially in the second round. Bayrou ruled out an alliance with Royal — and vice versa — against their center-right challenge, Nicolas Sarkozy. It is scary how a racist, extreme rightist like Jean-Marie Le Pen can still hold on to 14% support.

Polls indicate that in a second round run, Sarkozy would clearly beat Royal, and Bayrou would beat Sarkozy. However, since Royal is likely to beat Bayrou to get to the second round, who knows. The French will go to the polls to vote for a range of 12 candidates this Sunday the 22nd. Whichever two come out on top will face off on 6 May.

This election is one of the closest in recent history – and whoever wins will be the most powerful person in France.

The Economist

Reigning large in this election are major issues such as immigration (see 2005 minority riots, which showed Sarkozy's ugly side) and law and order; the economy (unemployment is up, job security and massive civil service sector is a problem, as is lack of liberalization); the shunning of aspects of the EU (which the leaders need to take initiative on nonetheless even if the people do not understand); and big government, in which the current French bureaucracy trumps (corruption included). Another political matter is the divided French left; considering France is a typically left-leaning country, that is an issue. One thing I have noticed is the lack mention of foreign policy by the candidates.

Where the three main candidates stand on issues shows their contrast, and similarities. Many of Bayrou's proposals are attractive, but, as The Economist touches as in their leader supporting Sarkozy, he is not a political heavyweight. Good news about Sarkozy: he does stand for reform; France needs all the reform it can get at this point.

No doubt change will be on its way.

News sites in depth on election:

BBC News

The Economist

Financial Times

Blogs to watch:

Prospect Magazine's France Profounde

French Élection 2007

Other:

Can’t forget Wikipedia!

technorati tags: france+elections, french+presidential+elections+2007, bayrou, sarkozy, royal, le+pen, election, news, politics, reference

French presidential elections heat up

The race for the office of president of France is heating up. First round voting begins on the 22nd.

This race will see a new ideology in the main spotlight, trying to bridge the gap between left and right. In fact, the terms 'political left' and 'political right' were established long ago due to assembly seating. The main candidates are as follows: from the right: former finance and interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy; from the left: relative political novice and Socialist Party candidate Segolene Royal; from the center (surprise, surprise): Francois Bayrou. Royal is the first major femail candidate in a French presidential election. Bayrou ran last election, but didn't even get 7% of the vote in the first round. I’ve read each of the candidates positions on a number of issues on their websites (thanks Google translation services!).

The Wikipedia article on the election offers a full list of candidates, the issues at hand, and updated poll numbers. Bayrou's political affiliation may seem center-right, but his policies are quite centrist. He is, from what I know so far, a very moderate social democrat — with economic views similar to my own. Out of the three main contenders Bayrou is the only one without an elite education. He is even still a part time farmer!

Sarkozy no doubt has the most experience, and Royal has the least, but that does not make him the best. (Royal did, like Bayrou, come from a modest background, and for her credit broke free from sexism and rode up the ranks of French politics.) Royal's seemingly endless flow of political gaffes have definitely tarnished her public image. Sarkozy has been charged with abuse of power and racism — two things the Fifth Republic hardly needs.

There is, however, a fourth main candidate, the ever-reoccurring Jean Marie Le Pen of the far-right National Front. No worries, his chance of winning is slim at best. Sarkozy's party, Union for a Popular Movement, or UMP, is currently the party in charge of both the executive and legislature.

Current President Jacques Chirac may still have some popularity, but many view his lengthy presidency — over a decade — as a failure. The former mayor of Paris failed to meet the promising goals he set up.

In the United States, for example, the Electoral College, comprised of people each state legislature picks, elects presidents. The winning candidate is the one who receives the most electoral votes, and since they are tied to the state of origin, candidates usually focus state-by-state. In France things are different. If there is no candidate with a clear 50% or more majority in the first round of voting, which is usually the case, the two candidates with the highest percentage of the vote face off in a second round. This year the second round is on 6 May.

At the moment (according to polls, see here also), Sarkozy is the leader overall, taking a third to a fourth of the vote, whereas Royal is taking around a fourth. If he faced Royal in a second round, he would win. However, if he faced Bayrou chances are he would loose. Polls can only be taken with a grain of salt — many respondents are unsure of their choice and may easily change their minds, especially once official campaigning kicks off. Official campaigning will start on the 9th and end on the 20th.

Whoever wins, the best outcome would be a better France, a France with more political discourse and less corruption and apathy; more understanding for newcomers but also enough strength to maintain law and order; a France who sticks to its guns in foreign policy, but also keeps healthy relations and utilizes fair but free trade. (All three main candidates to support a free market, even Royal — which is a good thing.) A major topic is also youth employment; we recently saw rioting by young adults over job security. Royal has recently stumbled on that topic.

Perhaps a Bayrou win will help transform French politics, giving a voice to the public through the middle of the political spectrum — which happens to be the most open area. Moderacy can eve unite bitter rivals, left and right, Euroskeptics and Europhiles, into more rational policies and less abrasive views. Extremism will leave one side or the other left out and annoyed — it will either stalemate the government, create a political rubber stamp and increase the ruling side's thirst for power, and/or spread a wave of political apathy across the nation. Centrism helps maintain political discourse, so the public does not feel alienated by the talking heads of the left and right.

There are many issues at hand in this election. Whoever wins will be the most powerful person in France, the leader of one of the great powers. Let the electioneering begin — and the insults fly — as the heat of the French political season is among us (parliamentary elections are later this year). More coverage soon.

technorati tags: france, politics, french+politics, france+election, president+france+2007+election, segolene+royal, royal, nicolas+sarkozy, francois+bayrou, bayrou, sarkozy, jean-marie+le+pen, jacques+chirac, news, in+the+news

Presidential predicaments (and my solutions)

US President Bush rebuffed by Senate panel (Washington Post) over his Iraq plan. Of course, it is not too much of a big deal — the Congressional resolutions against Bush's troop surge being nonbinding and all. What was the Democrats’ win supposed to accomplish again? The president has also been asked to stop being an idiot, like that's going to happen. Makes State of the Union speech less important than last year's... and more boring. (Slate seemed to be the only mainstream news site to have much on the State of the Union, with three articles by three column heavyweights. Obviously the SOTU news was on A1 of every major American newspaper, but still it seemed like a bigger overall deal last year. Consequently, Slate has a massive amount of coverage of the Scooter Libby trial. Speaking of the Libby trial, that is also not shining too positive of a light upon the Bush administration, nor are Bush's repeated assertions that he is 'the decider' (Slate) (now the "decision-maker" too) on basically everything not least Iraq. Way to be bipartisan, Dubya! Actually, he may have actually helped with bipartisanship in America: now both Democrats and Republicans are turning against him. Lastly be sure to check out Vice President Cheney's CNN interview and Bush's lackluster SOTU speech (Daily Kos) in full. Also see the speech topic-by-topic.

My advice for Bush: well, you already doing really bad on all angles of politics, so I'd say try to change the US's image abroad, but, unlike what you have been already doing, change it so that others see the US in a more positive light, not a negative one; also pay attention to the Constitution, believe it or not it is your friend; listen to the right people on Iraq and other areas of foreign policy; stop injecting religion — fundamentalist or otherwise — into government; practice what you preach and be bipartisan, on the other hand stop making the Executive branch the only one — in your mind — with any power and say in the United States government; worse comes to worse ask your dad for help, though he was not by any means a great president he was a hell of a lot better than you; you have two years left (yeah I'm counting down), make the most of them by actually doing good.

Israeli President Katsav indicted for rape, asked to step down by PM Olmert — who himself is having plenty of problems — and is on temporary leave (IHT).

My advice for Katsav: step down and make the most of the rest of your dwindling political career; also remember rape is bad and there's probably something in the Torah against that (no kidding).

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not doing so well; he is facing resistance from multiple areas of the government. There is also opposition by (New York Times) other powerful figures in Iranian politics largely over Ahmadinejad's handling of Iran's nuclear program and the UN sanctions (BBC News) imposed as a result of Iran's defiance of the international community. He is in political trouble also over the economy. Wait, governments are supposed to help the economy? That is one thing Bush and Ahmadinejad have in common: forgetting about crucial domestic issues.

My advice to Ahmadinejad: you may have a lot of oil, but that does not mean you cannot be roughed up; remember what Bush did to Iraq; go along with democratic reform contrary to your hardliner position; don't use your nukes, or better yet stop developing them — nuclear power is fine, nuclear weapons are not; the Holocaust did happen by the way.

What could possibly be damaging to the ruling conservative French political party UMP's star candidate for the presidency, current Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, is something certainly not new to the United States: spying with political motives. Yes, apparently the xenophobic, often racist Sarkozy, protégé of current French President Jacques Chraic, has used the secret police to spy on an adviser of his left-leaning political rival and frontrunner Socialist candidate for the presidency, Segolene Royal, who has also run into some political trouble, though minor, over a gaffe (Bloomberg) over Qubec. He is now not surprisingly experiencing dissent from (The Times) both within and outside of his party over that spying. The French presidential election will be in April.

My advice for Sarkozy: stop being a xenophobe against Muslims and others, that doesn't help anything; lose to Royal and I'll be happy.
My advice for Royal: don't mess this one up.


Song currently stuck in my head: "The Crane Wife 3" by The Decemberists.
I am feeling much better! Ironically, it was being out in cold weather that cured my cold...

technorati tags: bush, iraq, iran, israel, katsav, sarkozy, royal, politics, news, current, france, iraq, state+of+the+union, bush, cheney, ahmadinejad