Sarkozy v. Royal: the final chapter begins

Some new updates on the presidential election in France...

Although votes in this close election, which has enjoyed high turnout, are still being tallied, it looks as if there will indeed be a left-right battle in the second round of the French presidential election.

Centre-right Nicolas Sarkozy will meet Socialist Segolene Royal in the run-off of France's presidential election on 6 May, according to initial results.

Mr Sarkozy, a former interior minister, came first with 30%, ahead of Ms Royal, who is bidding to be France's first woman president, on about 25%.

Centrist Francois Bayrou got 18%, and far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen 11%.

Voting throughout the day reached record numbers, with turnout put at 85% - the highest for nearly 50 years.

On a bright spring day, disillusionment with politicians and their promises did not translate into apathy, reports the BBC's Caroline Wyatt in Paris.

For such a close election, these results look almost identical to what the candidates were polling in the days leading up to today's vote.

Campaigning will restart on 27 April, with the second round of voting on 6 May and the final results coming four days later. One should prepare for an intense campaign as left meets right in the nation that came up with the political identifications of "left" and "right" — a country that shows that history in its oft-partisan politics.

Royal, according to the aforementioned preliminary results, polled higher than previous opinion polls had speculated, in part because of the old-fashioned manner polling is done and the fact Royal has many young supporters.

It is very good that turnout was so high, as a politically apathetic France would hardly be the France we know. In a democracy the people must take action and that's what we've seen — for better or for worse — today in France. And even though centrist, left-right bridging Bayrou did not make it to the second round, his decent support has shown a politician in the middle can make it somewhere. Maybe someday that gap between left and right will be bridged for the Fifth Republic, whether by Bayrou or by someone else. It would have been interesting if Bayrou could have made it to the run-off. He was polling higher than Sarkozy in head-to-head polls before the election.

More worrying, however, is the support for extreme rightist Le Pen: one in 10 voted for him. At least this time he didn't make it to the second round, though. The fact Le Pen still enjoyed such support only illustrated further the political repair France is in dire need of.

Now: I am still torn between the gaffe-prone, old left-styled Royal and the xenophobic, right-wing-courting, 'mini-Bush' Sarkozy.

Update:
It's official...

FIRST ROUND RESULTS
Nicolas Sarkozy - 30.78%
Segolene Royal - 25.32%
Francois Bayrou - 18.47%
Jean-Marie Le Pen - 10.89%
Source: French Interior Ministry at 2100 GMT

technorati tags: france+presidential+election+2007, nicolas+sarkozy, bayrou, sarkozy, segolene+royal, royal, election+france, president+france, french+politics, news, voting, le pen, polls

La France vote 2007: haute assemblée dans la première étape de l'élection présidentielle

Or: France votes 2007: high turnout in first stage of presidential election

The French election is still unpredictable.

BBC News covers the news well...

French voters have been streaming to the polls to cast their ballot in a presidential election seen as the nation's most unpredictable in decades.

With three hours to go, nearly 74% had already voted, exceeding the total turnout for the last elections in 2002.

Twelve hopefuls are seeking a spot in the second-round run-off on 6 May.

The leading candidates are centre-right Nicolas Sarkozy, socialist Segolene Royal, centrist Francois Bayrou and far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen.

At 1500 GMT, turnout stood at 73.87%, according to the interior ministry, the highest rate in a first round since at least 1981.

Correspondents say many French voters approached the election in a mood of mingled fear and hope, believing France needs change after 12 years under President Jacques Chirac but unsure which direction to opt for.
...
There are more than one million newly registered voters, the biggest increase in 25 years.

RESULTS COUNTDOWN
1600 GMT - 22 April: Polls begin to close
1800 GMT - 22 April: Early exit polls
1800 GMT - 25 April: Official results
27 April: Campaigning restarts
6 May: Second round poll
10 May: Final official results

Whoever wins, says the BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus, it will mark a change of political generation and perhaps a shift in French international priorities, making this election matter even to those outside France.

BBC News has an interesting feature, now common for many major news stories, showing the views of an array of 'ordinary' people on the issue at hand.

I'd say my views are most on par with Muriel Calvez, who states:

Sadly, I feel that my vote will probably be more of a vote against a candidate - or several candidates - rather than a vote in favour of anyone.
...
The problem with the rest of the candidates is that they represent extremes - either the extreme left or the extreme right.

I consider myself more of a centre-left voter, but I cannot find any candidate that truly represents my views.

I feel like there is a lot of choice - but also no choice at all.

She said she will most likely vote for Segolene Royal or Francois Bayrou.

Hazem Eseifan also makes some strong points on the two candidates he is torn between: Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Bayrou.

I will watch both candidates closely between now and election day. I would like to see Sarkozy softening up a bit and for Bayrou to sharpen up.

See also a LRB article on the elections and, a NYT article on how the poverty of immigrants and the troublesome suburbs will play such a large role in the elections.

Sarkozy is disliked by the immigrants; liked by the tough 'law and order' types and xenophobes. He is trying to shift to the right to court some of Le Pen's lighter supporters. Royal's political weaknesses, along with Sarkozy's right-tilt, have empowered centrist Bayrou.

Even for non-voting, third parties such as myself it is a hard choice. Sarkozy will no doubt reform the reform-needy French system, but are some of policies too hard? Royal is ambitious and, at first glance, seems like a model modern liberal, but she is really just aligned with the policies of the Old Left — not in sync with the modern politik (which France ever more needs to be). Bayrou looks decent too, but, like the other two, has interventionist tendencies. He also believes in subsidized farming. France needs to open up and move its economy forward, not remain closed and keep slowing down.

technorati tags: sarkozy, bayrou, royal, france, french+election, france+president+election+2007, politics+de+France

Too close to call: French vote unpredictable

The first round of the French presidential election draws nearer. After today, opinion polls can no longer be published as to not compromise the vote.

Roughly 40% of the French electorate are still unsure of who they’ll vote for. The question is, how many of that 40% will vote?

At this time Sarkozy still has a good lead overall (nearly/about one-third of the vote), with Royal also following in the 20s (%) and Bayrou with not even 20% of the overall vote. Of course, since many are undecided, this election is looking very close, especially in the second round. Bayrou ruled out an alliance with Royal — and vice versa — against their center-right challenge, Nicolas Sarkozy. It is scary how a racist, extreme rightist like Jean-Marie Le Pen can still hold on to 14% support.

Polls indicate that in a second round run, Sarkozy would clearly beat Royal, and Bayrou would beat Sarkozy. However, since Royal is likely to beat Bayrou to get to the second round, who knows. The French will go to the polls to vote for a range of 12 candidates this Sunday the 22nd. Whichever two come out on top will face off on 6 May.

This election is one of the closest in recent history – and whoever wins will be the most powerful person in France.

The Economist

Reigning large in this election are major issues such as immigration (see 2005 minority riots, which showed Sarkozy's ugly side) and law and order; the economy (unemployment is up, job security and massive civil service sector is a problem, as is lack of liberalization); the shunning of aspects of the EU (which the leaders need to take initiative on nonetheless even if the people do not understand); and big government, in which the current French bureaucracy trumps (corruption included). Another political matter is the divided French left; considering France is a typically left-leaning country, that is an issue. One thing I have noticed is the lack mention of foreign policy by the candidates.

Where the three main candidates stand on issues shows their contrast, and similarities. Many of Bayrou's proposals are attractive, but, as The Economist touches as in their leader supporting Sarkozy, he is not a political heavyweight. Good news about Sarkozy: he does stand for reform; France needs all the reform it can get at this point.

No doubt change will be on its way.

News sites in depth on election:

BBC News

The Economist

Financial Times

Blogs to watch:

Prospect Magazine's France Profounde

French Élection 2007

Other:

Can’t forget Wikipedia!

technorati tags: france+elections, french+presidential+elections+2007, bayrou, sarkozy, royal, le+pen, election, news, politics, reference

French presidential elections heat up

The race for the office of president of France is heating up. First round voting begins on the 22nd.

This race will see a new ideology in the main spotlight, trying to bridge the gap between left and right. In fact, the terms 'political left' and 'political right' were established long ago due to assembly seating. The main candidates are as follows: from the right: former finance and interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy; from the left: relative political novice and Socialist Party candidate Segolene Royal; from the center (surprise, surprise): Francois Bayrou. Royal is the first major femail candidate in a French presidential election. Bayrou ran last election, but didn't even get 7% of the vote in the first round. I’ve read each of the candidates positions on a number of issues on their websites (thanks Google translation services!).

The Wikipedia article on the election offers a full list of candidates, the issues at hand, and updated poll numbers. Bayrou's political affiliation may seem center-right, but his policies are quite centrist. He is, from what I know so far, a very moderate social democrat — with economic views similar to my own. Out of the three main contenders Bayrou is the only one without an elite education. He is even still a part time farmer!

Sarkozy no doubt has the most experience, and Royal has the least, but that does not make him the best. (Royal did, like Bayrou, come from a modest background, and for her credit broke free from sexism and rode up the ranks of French politics.) Royal's seemingly endless flow of political gaffes have definitely tarnished her public image. Sarkozy has been charged with abuse of power and racism — two things the Fifth Republic hardly needs.

There is, however, a fourth main candidate, the ever-reoccurring Jean Marie Le Pen of the far-right National Front. No worries, his chance of winning is slim at best. Sarkozy's party, Union for a Popular Movement, or UMP, is currently the party in charge of both the executive and legislature.

Current President Jacques Chirac may still have some popularity, but many view his lengthy presidency — over a decade — as a failure. The former mayor of Paris failed to meet the promising goals he set up.

In the United States, for example, the Electoral College, comprised of people each state legislature picks, elects presidents. The winning candidate is the one who receives the most electoral votes, and since they are tied to the state of origin, candidates usually focus state-by-state. In France things are different. If there is no candidate with a clear 50% or more majority in the first round of voting, which is usually the case, the two candidates with the highest percentage of the vote face off in a second round. This year the second round is on 6 May.

At the moment (according to polls, see here also), Sarkozy is the leader overall, taking a third to a fourth of the vote, whereas Royal is taking around a fourth. If he faced Royal in a second round, he would win. However, if he faced Bayrou chances are he would loose. Polls can only be taken with a grain of salt — many respondents are unsure of their choice and may easily change their minds, especially once official campaigning kicks off. Official campaigning will start on the 9th and end on the 20th.

Whoever wins, the best outcome would be a better France, a France with more political discourse and less corruption and apathy; more understanding for newcomers but also enough strength to maintain law and order; a France who sticks to its guns in foreign policy, but also keeps healthy relations and utilizes fair but free trade. (All three main candidates to support a free market, even Royal — which is a good thing.) A major topic is also youth employment; we recently saw rioting by young adults over job security. Royal has recently stumbled on that topic.

Perhaps a Bayrou win will help transform French politics, giving a voice to the public through the middle of the political spectrum — which happens to be the most open area. Moderacy can eve unite bitter rivals, left and right, Euroskeptics and Europhiles, into more rational policies and less abrasive views. Extremism will leave one side or the other left out and annoyed — it will either stalemate the government, create a political rubber stamp and increase the ruling side's thirst for power, and/or spread a wave of political apathy across the nation. Centrism helps maintain political discourse, so the public does not feel alienated by the talking heads of the left and right.

There are many issues at hand in this election. Whoever wins will be the most powerful person in France, the leader of one of the great powers. Let the electioneering begin — and the insults fly — as the heat of the French political season is among us (parliamentary elections are later this year). More coverage soon.

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