Friday, 17 August 2007

Now who's leading in the 2008 US presidential polls?

See new December 2007 polls, days before the Iowa primaries!

One of the most popular posts on this blog the past couple months has been my analysis of the latest poll data for the 2008 United States presidential election. I thought it a wise idea to follow up that post with the latest August polling.

Romney's poll numbers paint him out as the underdog. Not so. The under-polled former Massachusetts governor is looking stronger than ever, and is probably going to win one, if not two, of the big upcoming party primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Giuliani — the frontrunner so far — is also looking at at least one primary win. Over-hyped, little-substance star Fred Thompson better get in the game or he will soon find himself unable to win his party's nomination.

My bet right now is that Romney will win Iowa and New Hampshire, and Giuliani will take home South Carolina. That will pit them against each other for the Republican Party's presidential nomination, a nomination that may break precedent from the look of things. Romney has a near-perfect track record, whereas Giuliani has spotty social views and a poor political history of bullying, cronyism, thinking of himself as above the law, and political mongering and showboating.

At this time we know almost nothing about Thompson or his political views, which is probably the reason he is doing so well. Once he does truly enter the race, expect his numbers to fall. The Republicans have not done as well in their campaign fundraising as their Democratic counterparts; John McCain seems to be almost out of the race because of his lack of funds. McCain's campaign has fallen apart these past few months and it is very unlikely that he will bounce back in full.

Not much has changed on the Democratic front. Obama and Clinton are still duking it out for the rights to the presidential nomination, with Sen. Hillary Clinton coming out on top still. Sen. Barack Obama has made plenty-a-gaff while Clinton still acts like a political robot with more shallow policies than her Illinois senatorial counterpart (i.e. Obama).

John Edwards, who actually has a plan for healthcare in America as opposed to his Democratic opponents, is still stuck in third place and foreign policy guru Bill Richardson, blaming jet lag for him saying that he thinks homosexuality is a choice (I'll have to dock him a few points in my book), is staying pretty far down there when it comes to popular support.

Graph data source: RealClearPolitics poll averages, as of 17 August (note: since all the poll numbers did not add up to 100%, I entered the remainder in as "[Other/Undecided]".). For more election 2008 polls, see Polling Report. To see the candidates' stance on various issues, check out this helpful table — it's a good political resource for a hot election season (even though the election is over a year away).

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