Deadly numbers: civilian deaths in Iraq

See here for opinion; more on Iraq.

It is a topic I have spoken of before. The civilian death toll in Iraq since the US-led invasion. Barely any government official has given a real number, many have dismissed a civilian toll altogether. If we are to spread democracy and civility, and having a 'moral', "family values" government ourselves (i.e. in the US), there should be at least a small effort to count. There is a person-by-person military toll (as countless news articles report), but the only known (i.e. those not covered up, ignored, etc.) deaths from a restricted number of sources has been counted by the UK organization Iraq Body Count — they put the total known and confirmed deaths at about 45,000; going mostly by media report accounts. Anyone who has studied the conflict in Iraq since the American intervention knows it has to be much higher than that.

No one has attempted in recent days to put together a more statistically-correct, large, but not case-by-case confirmed civilian toll (as it would be impossible to do so, especially without American and/or other military help — or laxing of restrictions — as well as more transparency in the current Iraqi government). That is, until a few days ago when reputable researchers used a combination of known data and statistics, along with probability and some guessing, to make a figure of 655,000 (see this report). They used the same technique used to estimate the Darfur death toll (which is believed to be low, 400,000) and used in various electoral and poll circumstances, namely exit polls.

About two years ago, an attempt at a mortality figure gave 100,000 as the number of civilian deaths (done by many of the same people as the current one has been; was seen as inflated by many — hindsight may be a bit more 20/20, though few would admit). Human Rights Watch — to list one of many organizations who have not voiced contempt with the new toll — had said the initial invasion figure (100,000) was questionable, but that this latest one (655,000)/ seemed to be kosher.

Obviously, figures in the Bush administration have been quick to dismiss these new figures... as President Bush only recently put the number at a measly 30,000 deaths of non-combatants.

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