Tuesday, 7 November 2006

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 11)

Another sign that the Democrats will have trouble, even if they win the House (which they almost certainly will) is in this Michael Kinsley piece for The Guardian:

What will a Democratic House of Representatives be like? The Republicans have been painting a portrait of Democrats roasting children on a spit in the Capitol Rotunda. Hoping for a more encouraging view, I picked up A New Direction for America - a 31-page manifesto released by House Democrats in June. All I can say is, thank goodness I voted beforehand.

Howard Kurtz of the Washington Post has a neat media wrap-up of predictions, bits about events, and sample drafts of election outcome reports (not real though).

See also this post on other election outcome scenarios.


So far: the Republicans are ahead by three seats in the Senate races; the Democrats are ahead by eight in the House.

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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 10)

Surprising called and projected results in New Jersey and Connecticut (respectively).

CNN is somewhat boldly projecting a win for Lamont (D) over Lieberman (I), though the latter incumbent has a clear majority in polls leading up to the election. The Republican in that Senate race is so minute in votes, I won't even bother to look up his name.

The US Senate race for New Jersey Menendez (D) has bounced back up, taking the lead over Kean (R).

As Drudge is helpfully reminding us (to his fear that the Dems could take over):

DEMS NEED: +4 TO TAKE SENATE
DEMS NEED: +14 TO TAKE HOUSE

And "Macaca" Sen. Allen (R-VA incumbent) is making a comeback :(
VA SEN [61.48% IN]
ALLEN 679,127 50.33%
WEBB 653,942 48.46%


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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 9)

As of now, the Republicans are ahead total around 10 in the Senate, around 30 in the House.

Virginia race for Senator between Webb (D) and incumbent Allen (R) is neck-and-neck.

Senate race in Florida won by incumbent Sen. Nelson (D)

Massachusetts won by incumbent US Sen. Kennedy — duh!

Missouri Senate race also too close to call between challenger McCaskill (D) and incumbent Sen. Talent (R)

Analysis coming soon. At approx. 10:30 PM EST (GMT -5) I will be posting some more original content. For election coverage, please see the news sources listed below (for best coverage, open them all in tabs in your Firefox or Oprah or Safari browser.


See MSNBC, CNN, NYT, BBC, WP,
Real Clear Politics, Drudge, Yahoo, and Kos election coverage.
Individual stories from a variety of sources on a variety of topics at Google News. If you have other sites to recommend, comment on this post.


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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 8)

Senate, House seats called.
See BBC News' chart of Congressional seats, with an explanation.

Polls have closed in Virginia (with a close Senate race), Vermont, and Indiana (they ended up staying open a bit later than expected).

Updates are coming in by the minute.

Problems in voting are of much focus for party and government officials, as well as others.

· Third of electorate use controversial machinery
· Early indications of high turnout in close contests


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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 7)

The exit polls are/will be coming in. Read all about exit polls from this Pollster.com article.

ABC has an exit poll about the disapproval of a majority of voters over President Bush's handling of Iraq; he is not being elected this election, is he? (No.) I have been seeing much focus on Bush's job approval rating (etc.) Maybe it is just a sorry use for an election tilt (Dem-GOP) indicator? I guess "Bush" has become even more of a buzzword. Then again, Iraq if a major election issue...

UPDATE 7:00 PM EST:
Read more exit polls; exit polls on Democrats.

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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 6)

Some polls in east Kentucky and the eastern part of Indiana have closed — the first poll closings of this 2006 US election. However, as CQ Politics points out, who knows when the election results will materialize.


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Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 5)

Change is coming, no matter who the winner is.

Disregarding what the outcomes of this US midterm election will be, pundits and political analysts are mulling over the matter of eminent ideological change in both the Republican and Democratic parties. They are also sifting through the possibilities for various individual races, Congress as a whole, and the general political climate in America.

No matter what, there will be change in the the GOP:

One verdict from the 2006 election was obvious before a single vote had been counted: the Republican Party no longer has a coherent governing philosophy. Republicans who care about advancing a consistent set of ideals are already at each other's throats, and are likely to stay there.

True, most Republicans still describe themselves as "conservative.'' But it is no longer clear what that word means -- and those who consider themselves the guardians of orthodoxy on the right are in a blessed rage over who can claim title to the label.

This could be a good thing if the Democrats do well:
A Democratic majority in either chamber could set the stage for two years of intense political conflict. Democrats would be likely to use the subpoena power that comes with majority control to aggressively examine Bush policies in Iraq and at home that they argue Republican lawmakers have failed to monitor.

Big Democratic gains would also disrupt the ambitions of Bush and Karl Rove, his chief political advisor, to build a lasting Republican electoral majority centered on an alliance of economic and social conservatives.

But if the Dems totally loose...
First, if Democrats don't at least retake the House, many pundits will say that the whole party might as well close up shop. With such an incredibly favorable political environment, they will say, Democrats will never be in a stronger position to regain control. Therefore, failure to do so must mean that the Republican advantage is so strong in terms of money, organization and gerrymandering that Democrats could be locked out of control for perhaps decades to come.

Even if they do well, there could be a bad backlash for moderates/moderate-liberals/liberals since there would be mostly moderate Democrats and further right Republicans.
The House results are likely to wipe out many moderate Republicans, who are taking the brunt of the wave because they represent Democratic-leaning or competitive districts.

Arianna Huffington of the Huffington Post writes about the "spin" of these elections:
Sensing victory in the House, and keeping their fingers crossed on the Senate, the Democratic Party's competing factions -- DLC centrists on one side, progressives on the other -- are eagerly trying to frame the hoped for good news as proof that their side is right.

And there is an article in The New York Times that says that the Dems will be wallowing in discontent even if they do pull off a good win. About the high Democrat expectations:
Some Democrats worry that those forecasts, accurate or not, may be setting the stage for a demoralizing election night, and one with lasting ramifications, sapping the party’s spirit and energy heading into the 2008 presidential election cycle.
... And the gridlock issue:
If they win the House by a large margin but do not get the Senate, they will also no doubt claim something of a mandate, though that would seem to be a recipe for gridlock.

Lastly, the White House's favourite outcome:
The White House is vigorously predicting Republicans will hold both chambers.
I guess Bush and Co. are sill in dream land...

While writing this post, I found a good article on the different election outcome scenarios and their possible repercussions.

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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 4)

Troubles, troubles...
A ballot box

There are plenty of voting woes, in machinery and people, during this election day. Of course these problems were predicted (see Diebold).


Election night, when the polls close and the analysts offer their opinions and we all just have to wait as exit polls come in and final results are tallied, is coming only in a matter of hours.

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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 3)

General information, news stories, and issues influencing and/or relating to the US midterm elections today...
A catalog of all previous In Perspective election and election-related posts.

News and info:
* List of websites (T- 45 days)
* Various (T- 12 days)
* Polls (T- 4 days)
* Election day: update 1 (T- 0 days)
* Election day: update 2 (T- 0 days)

Topics/issues:
* Illegal immigration
* Iraq situation (in general)
* Iraq policy
* Terrorism and exploitation of terror fears
* Iraq PR
* Saddam Hussein
* Voter turnout
* White House message/perception
* Foley scandal
* Kerry comments
* 2008 presidential elections

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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 2)

From many, many polling and analytics sources, it looks like the Democrats are set to take over the US House of Representatives with a majority anyone between the tens to the thirties. Many Senate indicators but the GOP and Dems at 50-50, if you count Independent Sen. Joe Liebermann (previously Democrat, of Connecticut) as a Democrat. The Democrats are almost certain to have a good majority over Republicans in Governor races.

I will be focusing mainly on the Senate since it is easy to track (100 seats versus the House's 400-some), bears more influence per member than the House, and is going to be really close. (I don't consider the Governor party affiliation nearly as important, for obvious reasons: many times GOP Governors act like Dems, and vice versa... the same goes for how they are elected. And there is not much of a caucus.)

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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 0 days (update 1)

It is judgment day.
I have a torrent of tabs open in Firefox and Safari monitoring election-related stories and tracking polls. From Pollster to the Drudge Report to Larry Sabado, I am covered this election day!

Polls opened at 6 AM in much of the eastern region of the United States (in some areas, 7 or 7:30 AM) and will begin to close at 6 PM in many areas (usually later, though).

One last reminder to all those Americans registered to vote: please do so, vote.

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Monday, 6 November 2006

Who has the best election news site?

And the honour for best overall US election special report goes to...
As US midterm election day nears, there seems to be one website with arguable the best features and coverage, and it is not American. Yes, the BBC has gotten my vote for the best US election coverage and analysis. Anyone voting (or anyone who cares about current events or American government) should check out their BBC News in-depth report on the elections with a decent blog, a presentation of the issues, outcome predictions, and more great stuff for news and political junkies and voters alike.

David Corn wonders — if sarcastically (which is understandable) — whether Bush and Chaney actually want the GOP to loose, considering all the decisions they are making (e.g. holding on to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld) that could easily negatively distort the Republican image in the potential voter's eye (like that was not already achieved).

See this post for my views on voting.

I hope to be blogging during the day tomorrow with tidbits of poll numbers, news wrap-ups, and commentary.

On a totally different matter, the song currently stuck in my head is The Killers' "Sam's Town", from their latest album of the same name. Maybe I will critique it... soon ;) I also want to see "Borat".

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In Perspective

Comparing jury dury to voting...

The American political scene is not pretty, nor are the voter turnout rates.

If you are in the US, over 18, and have photo identification, it is my belief that you should have registered to vote. It takes a small amount of time, especially considering the average American spends four hours and 39 minutes watching television on every day. If jury duty is mandatory, than why shouldn't the equally civil important duty of voting be the same? Even in Iraq there were twice the percentage of voters to voting population than will probably be true this election in the US. (Voting numbers and links coming soon.) My point is, if one is basically required for jury duty, then there should be a programme to drive the vote for elections too. I am not saying the US should be like Thailand hand have mandatory voting, but there should be some kind of system that will get people out to the polls — I am sure all those political analysts can do better than me at coming up with a solution to the voter turnout conundrum. I do know , however, that part of the problem is pop culture (the bad pop culture) and its increasing roll in American society. This pop culture invasion is also true — to an extent — in Britain, according to a new study that says British teens are the worst in Western Europe... I knew that the US and UK should not have been/be so close!

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In Perspective

Saddam death sentence follow-up

A follow-up to this post.
On again, off again (but mostly on again) Neocon writer Christopher Hitchens seems to agree with most of my opinions on the death penalty expressed in my Saddam Hussein verdict post in this Slate article — which focuses much on the Kurds in Iraq. See also a "tribute", or history (per se), of the Iraqi dictator written by David Cox on Guardian Unlimited's Comment is Free. Also, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair has said that he does not agree with the use of the death penalty, even for the genocidal Saddam Hussein.

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In Perspective

Sunday, 5 November 2006

Case closed (?): Saddam Hussein sentenced

This relates to the situation in Iraq, and is a supplement to the "Iraq situation" series.
The biggest trial since Michael Jackson's, the trial of Saddam Hussein has finally come to a halt. In this trial, evidence was presented on charges of crimes against humanity.

Former --Iraqi (posts)-- leader Saddam Hussein (profile), along with two co-defendants, has been sentenced to death by hanging, the Baghdad-based Iraqi High Tribunal has ruled. Among those happy are US officials (US midterm elections are only a few days away), Shias (including predominately Shia nations such as Iran), Kurds, and others oppressed under the dictator's decades-long rule that ended with the United States-led coalition invasion in 2003. Those who are disgruntled by the death sentence include some human rights groups, people/bodies who/that recognize the human right to life (including the EU), supporters of Saddam and other — but not all — Sunnis.

This BBC article summarizes this latest event well:

The former Iraqi leader was convicted over the killing of 148 people in the mainly Shia town of Dujail following an assassination attempt on him in 1982.

US President George W Bush said the verdict was a "milestone" for Iraq but the EU urged it not to execute him.

The capture of Saddam, and this trial, really will ultimately not matter much in Iraq's history — as much (while the toppling of Saddam does certainly warrant the label of 'milestone') as President Bush and Neoconservatives would like to Americans to believe. However, the trial will probably play into the hands of the GOP. It is no coincidence that the ruling came today, two days before US midterms. United States Vice President Dick Chaney had recently — more than ever — pushed for a verdict soon before the elections, and he was not the only White House or Republican figure pushing for such a timely ruling on a matter that engrosses so many of the headlines and issue lists. The main question is whether this ruling will change the minds of potential voters or if voters will even see it as connected to the central issue of the war in Iraq.

This trial has been marred by many questionable judicial rulings and the alleged (when you have defense lawyers being killed all of the time and the justice system doing nothing about it, I would call it a questionable trial) stripping of basic trial rights. These characteristics of this roller coaster ride of a trial seem to have shown that a fair trial was not given to Saddam in a country that can only hesitantly be called a democracy (e.g. free press)

It is not like Saddam — and us watching on the sidelines — did not see this coming, it is the way the trial went about and the method of punishment that disgruntles me. Not only does the ruling of penalty of death almost certainly elevate sectarian violence, but the death penalty shows even more that Iraqi justice is questionable to human rights standards. Capital punishment is inhumane (and uncivilized), in face the US is the only truly developed country that still [readily] uses it. That eye for a an eye, tooth for a tooth mentality should be long gone... I mean, who wants to be blind and toothless?

See my views on withdraw of foreign troops from Iraq.

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In Perspective

Friday, 3 November 2006

Getting ready for 2008... hey, that's politics!

Looking forward from the upcoming general election, the 2008 presidential and general US election is now a bit more than two years away. In Washington terms, that is soon. Two charismatic frontrunners Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Barak Obama (D-IL), getting even more press, as another Democrat — possibly Obama's competitor — is seems to be loosing the limelight (more on that later). Obama has been beating Sen. McCain in newspaper inches over the past little while bacause of Sen. Obama's new book, The Audacity of Hope. Obama has been the Democratic party's hopefull for a new, fresh face for years now. I remember the new year's edition of Newsweek at the end of 2004, two of the people Newsweek named most promacing to be getting places in their respective industries were Barak Obama and Jon Stewart. The point is, it's Obama's time to shine. He has delivered almost President John F. Kennedy-like speeches: powerful and inspiring, and is a progresive but down-to-the-ground Democrat. The biggest problem with Obama is that he may well be held back, again, but the DNC (i.e. his own party) to make room for Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) campaign for the Oval Office. McCain is not bad himself either. He has morals, but believes in the seperation of church and state (a big problem in the GOP right now) and individual liberties.

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In Perspective

Counting down to US elections: 4 days (the polls)

An election projection survey from Ed Fitzgerald's Unfutz Auxiliary blog:
From unfutz2.blogspot.com

Closest and most high-profile Governor and Senate races with data from Pollster:

(I want Brown to win.)
(I want Webb to win.)






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In Perspective

Thursday, 2 November 2006

Whose paranoia is worse?

Here are some groups I have picked out:
— The US government's paranoia about everyone trying to topple everything they do, including Lebanon ("axis of evil" Iran and Syria with others) and Iraq (which the US is doing a fine job itself with).
— The conspiring 'government overthrowers' (e.g. Iran) or others (e.g. North Korea) who are paranoid and spread their paranoia about the US's evil mission and evil citizens.
— The US government's fear-mongering "war on terror", thus creating paranoia in American citizens and creating more...
— 'Conspiracy theorists' who think that their shower-head is bugged and that Senator's business card has a GPS tracker in it.

You decide who the most paranoid is!

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In Perspective

Wednesday, 1 November 2006

Kerry's comments should not make the top of the front page...

Stop the presses!!! There are more important things happening in the US than a certain senator's dumb but taken-out-of-context comments!

Why is it when Sen. Kerry, a Democrat, makes a stupid comment it makes the front page (for more than one day — ?). Even though he is not running in an election race this year, nor has he been too high profile since his bid in the 2004 presidential elections, Kerry is getting a momentous amount of attention and headlines. Obviously, Kerry has had a horrible follow-up plan to his comments and needs to rethink making improvised comments. It reminds me of, in the West Wing television show, President Bartlett (played by Martin Sheen) sometimes made slightly offensive jokes about golfers, etc. At least his follow-up plan was not too bad, compared to Kerry's mumblings and various statements. Back to the matter of column inches for this whole situation; President Bush, on the other hand (of Kerry), says stupid comments all the time — rarely, if ever, have those comments ever made A1! But they do fill books and political satire (as well as general humor) websites.

Keith Olbermann thinks Bush should apologize to the troops instead of Kerry. I, honestly, am sick of all this stuff. Let's get back to the real news tomorrow, shall we? There is enough usual partisan mudslinging in elections, this is making US politics look more like — to continue the metaphor — a big, dirty pigpen more than ever.

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In Perspective

Al-Jazeera to enter the English-language news realm

The popular Arabic news channel, Al-Jazeera, is to launch an English-language news channel on 15 November. As the afore-linked article says:

Al-Jazeera's Arabic-language channel, which marks its 10th anniversary on Wednesday, has clashed repeatedly with Washington, which says its exclusive broadcasts of Osama bin Laden speeches show an anti-American bias.
. All the airing of the Bin Laden speeches shows is that Al Jazeera has guts and shows information that the news media is [often] expected to present to the people, as is illustrated in the continuance of the above quote:
Its freewheeling newscasts have overshadowed state-run TV stations across much of the Arab world, leading some countries to close Al-Jazeera's bureaus.
Another reason the White House hates Al Jazeera is that it does not kiss up, sugar coat, cover up, or do all the things independent news media is supposed to not do (but Fox News often does regularly). See this great Foreign Policy article for more on Al-Jazeera truths and fallacies and profiles the news network in general. Make room CNN, Fox, and MSNBC, there is a new news broadcaster in town (possibly). On the international English-language platform, Al-Jazeera will compete with [the worse] CNN International and [the better] BBC World.

At least then there will be some variety. CNN and MSNBC are trying to be more and more like Fox News (because of Fox's increased viewer-ship due to its super conservatism, ignorantly pro-Bush views). Al Jazeera, contrary to popular American belief, is not a 'terrorist' network nor is it a wing of Islamic fundamentalism. Some of that view has been instilled in the minds of the public by the US news media, some by the politicians in the White House and on Capital Hill (if anyone remembers, a while back plans leaked that President Bush was to try to blow up an Al Jazeera news operation centre for no real reason). The Bush administration has, over and over again, shown their contempt for the news media, the only exception being the aftermath of the 11 September 2001 terror attacks when everyone was, all of the sudden, very patriotic and blindly backing the president as he fooled nearly everyone with fear mongering for ideological, political capital gains. Al Jazeera is surprisingly objective and a usually-accepted news source. The BBC is still by far the best news broadcast though.

For more news media analysis see Project for Excellence in Journalism, Wikipedia's entry, On the Media, and CJR (and CJR Daily), among other sites.

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In Perspective

Greetings! Some news selections...

I dunno, I just got some random idea of matching various topics in the news with greetings and exclamations. Don't ask why (it started with the first topic).

Hello/goodbye
Say hello to more propaganda from the US government, and say a last goodbye to civility as you meet more dirty election smears (literally). Also, Sen. John Kery and the Democratic base split again. The Democrats really 'cut and run' from the side of one of their major members. Not that I think Kerry's comments on doing well in college or else having to be in the military are right, the amount of coverage they have gotten surely shows, yet again, that there is no liberal media bias. Although he finally apologized for his comments, the whole political juiciness that has now developed around his comments is still at the top of the headlines on Iraq. Two-party rule in America is really starting to get annoying, as are the baseless attacks.

Wow
Whilst on the topic of politics, I must say that along with these sites, the BBC has made a very exceptional in-depth report on the 2006 US elections (albeit almost at the last moment for some of their best contend in the report).

Aah! & Oh my!
Check out the latest global warming report commissioned by the British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, the Stern Review. It shows that climate change could easily and greatly devistate the economies of the world very fast. The more we wait, the higher the economic, humanitarian, and environmental toll will be.

Hmm...
I'm totally against censorship but, a message to the News Sniffer's "Watch Your Mouth" team, the BBC already says that their Have Your Say sections are sometimes monitored and posts sometimes removed, or "censored" as you all put it.

Oh. Okay.
See the BBC international press roundup on the recent raid by the Pakistani government. See also this interesting, though week-old, Economist article on the North Korean situation.

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In Perspective

Funny cat pics

In the mood to laugh?
To describe these pictures I would use one word: hilarious. (Especially the car cats, the emo cat, the crazy cat, the shower cat, and the karate cat.) While some of the captions are just dumb, many complement the humor of the cat's situation as the pictures were taken. I do wish that the people of the site (aptly named Kontraband) gave credit to those who took the pictures...


Here are two fun — but nothing like the ones on that site — pictures that I have taken of my Devon Rex mix kitten, Mouse:


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In Perspective

Is everyone clueless?

Especially as elections near, President Bush has been saying more and more about Democrats' being clueless on Iraq and the "war on terror" in general. Nothing new in this news:

President Bush said terrorists will win if Democrats win and impose their policies on Iraq...
.

But hah! Bush doesn't have a real Iraq plan [either]! This is the Democrats' chance to call his bluff only a week or so before the general elections. The truth is, no group of politicians have a real plan other than Bush and co.'s recently slightly revoked 'stay the course' (whatever that means) rhetoric. My advice to the Dems: Start responding with political ads and try to get media coverage. Stop increasing the coverage of the Kerry-insulting-the-military issue by ceasing to elevate it yourselves! He is in your own party! These are the days of negative, attack adverts, so either respond fire-with-fire to the Republicans or think of another strategy (maybe study Karl Rove?).

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In Perspective